QA BM Split - GA1 (atomic_bm)

# This body had no empty-state at all, unlike its five siblings -- a missing
# input was an error rather than a rendered explanation.
if (isTRUE(x$empty)) {
  cat(sprintf(
    "No BM-split QA data for `%s` at granularity `%s` -- that granularity has not been segmented/scored yet. Run the `nli_ready_evidence_parquet` chain for it and re-render.\n\n",
    params$assessment_id, params$granularity
  ))
  knitr::knit_exit()
}

GA1 – granularity: atomic_bm

Methodology

Every Background Message (BM) in this assessment is split into claims by nli_ready_evidence_parquet under the granularity of the NLI config selected by input/config.yaml’s fact_checking.nli. This report is a QA check on that split, not a scoring result — for every BM field, it shows the original bm_description/bm_label text with each resulting claim’s source span colour-highlighted, followed by the claims themselves as a colour-matched list, so the segmentation can be sanity-checked by eye before any NLI/LLM scoring is run against it. Highlighting is based on the raw span each claim was cut from, before any confidence-qualifier removal or (for atomic_bm) LLM completion – so it covers at least the major part of a claim’s origin, even where the listed claim text itself was reworded. See TD_BM_NLI_approach.qmd for the full design rationale behind each granularity option (naive_bm / complete_bm / atomic_bm).

cat(sprintf("- **%d** distinct BMs, **%d** resulting claims\n", n_bm, n_claims))

• 32 distinct BMs, 229 resulting claims

if (has_confidence) {
  cat(sprintf(
    "- **%.1f%%** of claims had an IPBES confidence qualifier (\"well established\" / \"established but incomplete\" / \"unresolved\" / \"inconclusive\") extracted out of the claim text into its own column\n",
    pct_with_confidence
  ))
} else {
  cat(
    "- This granularity's claims carry no separate confidence-qualifier column (whole-field claims, `complete_bm` only).\n"
  )
}

• 70.3% of claims had an IPBES confidence qualifier (“well established” / “established but incomplete” / “unresolved” / “inconclusive”) extracted out of the claim text into its own column

Original BM vs. resulting claims

cat(x$html)

Nature and its vital contributions to people, which together embody biodiversity and ecosystem functions and services, are deteriorating worldwide (A.)

A1 -- bm_description

For example, marine and freshwater-based food is co-produced by the combination of fish populations, fishing gear, and access to fishing grounds {2.3.3}. There is unequal access to nature’s contributions and unequal impact of nature’s contributions on different social groups (established but incomplete) {2.3.5}. Furthermore, increases in the production of some of nature’s contributions cause declines in others (Figure SPM.1) {2.3.2, 2.3.5}, which also affects people differently (well established). For example, clearing of forest for agriculture has increased the supply of food, feed, (NCP 12) and other materials important for people (such as natural fibres and ornamental flowers: NCP 13), but has reduced contributions as diverse as pollination (NCP 2), climate regulation (NCP 4), water quality regulation (NCP 7), opportunities for learning and inspiration (NCP 15) and the maintenance of options for the future (NCP 18). However, very few large-scale systematic studies exist on those relationships {2.3.2}. Land degradation has reduced productivity in 23 per cent of the global terrestrial area, and between $235 billion and $577 billion in annual global crop output is at risk as a result of pollinator loss {2.3.5.3} (established but incomplete).

1. For example, marine and freshwater-based food is co-produced by the combination of fish populations, fishing gear, and access to fishing grounds
   2.3.3
   n/a
2. There is unequal access to nature’s contributions and unequal impact of nature’s contributions on different social groups
   2.3.5
   established but incomplete
3. Furthermore, increases in the production of some of nature’s contributions cause declines in others (Figure SPM.1)
   2.3.2, 2.3.5
   n/a
4. Increases in the production of some of nature’s contributions cause declines in others, which also affects people differently.
   n/a
   well established
5. For example, clearing of forest for agriculture has increased the supply of food, feed, (NCP 12) and other materials important for people (such as natural fibres and ornamental flowers: NCP 13), but has reduced contributions as diverse as pollination (NCP 2), climate regulation (NCP 4), water quality regulation (NCP 7), opportunities for learning and inspiration (NCP 15) and the maintenance of options for the future (NCP 18). However, very few large-scale systematic studies exist on those relationships
   2.3.2
   n/a
6. Land degradation has reduced productivity in 23 per cent of the global terrestrial area, and between $235 billion and $577 billion in annual global crop output is at risk as a result of pollinator loss
   2.3.5.3
   established but incomplete

A1 -- bm_label

Nature underpins quality of life by providing basic life support for humanity -regulating-, as well as material goods -material- and spiritual inspiration -non-material- (well established) {2.3.1, 2.3.2}. Most of nature’s contributions to people (NCP) are co-produced by biophysical processes and ecological interactions with anthropogenic assets such as knowledge, infrastructure, financial capital, technology and the institutions that mediate them (well established) {2.3.2} (Appendix I).

1. Nature underpins quality of life by providing basic life support for humanity -regulating-, as well as material goods -material- and spiritual inspiration -non-material-
   2.3.1, 2.3.2
   well established
2. Most of nature’s contributions to people (NCP) are co-produced by biophysical processes and ecological interactions with anthropogenic assets such as knowledge, infrastructure, financial capital, technology and the institutions that mediate them
   2.3.2
   well established

A2 -- bm_description

Nature provides a broad diversity of nutritious foods, medicines and clean water (well established) {2.3.5.2, 3.3.2.1, 3.3.2.2 (Sustainable Development Goal 3)}; can help to regulate disease and the immune system {2.3.4.2}; can reduce levels of certain air pollutants (established but incomplete) {2.3.4.2, 3.3.2.2}; and can improve mental and physical health through exposure to natural areas (inconclusive), among other contributions {2.3.2.2, 2.3.4.2, 3.3.2.2 (Sustainable Development Goal 3)}. Nature is the origin of most infectious diseases (negative impact), but also the source of medicines and antibiotics for treatment (positive contribution) (well established). Zoonotic diseases are significant threats to human health, with vector-borne diseases accounting for approximately 17 per cent of all infectious diseases and causing an estimated 700,000 deaths globally per annum (established but incomplete) {3.3.2.2}. Emerging infectious diseases in wildlife, domestic animals, plants or people can be exacerbated by human activities such as land clearing and habitat fragmentation (established but incomplete) or the overuse of antibiotics driving rapid evolution of antibiotic resistance in many bacterial pathogens (well established) {3.3.2.2}. The deterioration of nature and consequent disruption of benefits to people has both direct and indirect implications for public health (well established) {2.3.5.2} and can exacerbate existing inequalities in access to health care or healthy diets (established but incomplete) {2.3.4.2}. Shifting diets towards a diversity of foods, including fish, fruit, nuts and vegetables, significantly reduces the risk of certain preventable non-communicable diseases, which are currently responsible for 20 per cent of premature mortality globally (well established) {2.3.4.2, 2.3.5.2 (NCP 2 and 12)}.

1. Nature provides a broad diversity of nutritious foods, medicines and clean water
   2.3.5.2, 3.3.2.1, 3.3.2.2 (Sustainable Development Goal 3)
   well established
2. Nature can help to regulate disease and the immune system.
   2.3.4.2
   n/a
3. Nature can reduce levels of certain air pollutants
   2.3.4.2, 3.3.2.2
   established but incomplete
4. Nature can improve mental and physical health through exposure to natural areas.
   n/a
   inconclusive
5. Nature provides among other contributions.
   2.3.2.2, 2.3.4.2, 3.3.2.2 (Sustainable Development Goal 3)
   n/a
6. Nature is the origin of most infectious diseases (negative impact), but also the source of medicines and antibiotics for treatment (positive contribution)
   n/a
   well established
7. Zoonotic diseases are significant threats to human health, with vector-borne diseases accounting for approximately 17 per cent of all infectious diseases and causing an estimated 700,000 deaths globally per annum
   3.3.2.2
   established but incomplete
8. Emerging infectious diseases in wildlife, domestic animals, plants or people can be exacerbated by human activities such as land clearing and habitat fragmentation
   n/a
   established but incomplete
9. Emerging infectious diseases in wildlife, domestic animals, plants or people can be exacerbated by human activities such as land clearing and habitat fragmentation or the overuse of antibiotics driving rapid evolution of antibiotic resistance in many bacterial pathogens.
   3.3.2.2
   well established
10. The deterioration of nature and consequent disruption of benefits to people has both direct and indirect implications for public health
    2.3.5.2
    well established
11. The deterioration of nature can exacerbate existing inequalities in access to health care or healthy diets.
    2.3.4.2
    established but incomplete
12. Shifting diets towards a diversity of foods, including fish, fruit, nuts and vegetables, significantly reduces the risk of certain preventable non-communicable diseases, which are currently responsible for 20 per cent of premature mortality globally
    2.3.4.2, 2.3.5.2 (NCP 2 and 12)
    well established

A2 -- bm_label

Many of nature’s contributions to people are essential for human health (well established) and their decline thus threatens a good quality of life (established but incomplete) {2.3.4}.

1. Many of nature’s contributions to people are essential for human health.
   n/a
   well established
2. Many of nature’s contributions to people are essential for human health and their decline thus threatens a good quality of life.
   2.3.4
   established but incomplete

A3 -- bm_description

Loss of diversity, such as phylogenetic and functional diversity, can permanently reduce future options, such as wild species that might be domesticated as new crops and be used for genetic improvement {2.3.5.3}. People have created substitutes for some other contributions of nature, but many of them are imperfect or financially prohibitive {2.3.2.2}. For example, high-quality drinking water can be realized either through ecosystems that filter pollutants or through human-engineered water treatment facilities {2.3.5.3}. Similarly, coastal flooding from storm surges can be reduced either by coastal mangroves or by dikes and sea walls {2.3.5.3}. In both cases, however, built infrastructure can be extremely expensive, incur high future costs and fail to provide synergistic benefits such as nursery habitats for edible fish or recreational opportunities {2.3.5.2}. More generally, human-made replacements often do not provide the full range of benefits provided by nature {2.3.2.2} (Figure SPM.1).

1. Loss of diversity, such as phylogenetic and functional diversity, can permanently reduce future options, such as wild species that might be domesticated as new crops and be used for genetic improvement.
   2.3.5.3
   n/a
2. People have created substitutes for some other contributions of nature, but many of them are imperfect or financially prohibitive
   2.3.2.2
   n/a
3. For example, high-quality drinking water can be realized either through ecosystems that filter pollutants or through human-engineered water treatment facilities
   2.3.5.3
   n/a
4. Similarly, coastal flooding from storm surges can be reduced either by coastal mangroves or by dikes and sea walls
   2.3.5.3
   n/a
5. In both cases, however, built infrastructure can be extremely expensive, incur high future costs and fail to provide synergistic benefits such as nursery habitats for edible fish or recreational opportunities
   2.3.5.2
   n/a
6. More generally, human-made replacements often do not provide the full range of benefits provided by nature
   2.3.2.2
   n/a

A3 -- bm_label

Most of nature’s contributions are not fully replaceable, yet some contributions of nature are irreplaceable (well established).

1. Most of nature’s contributions are not fully replaceable, yet some contributions of nature are irreplaceable
   n/a
   well established

A4 -- bm_description

Global indicators of ecosystem extent and condition have shown a decrease by an average of 47 per cent of their estimated natural baselines, with many continuing to decline by at least 4 per cent per decade (established but incomplete) {2.2.5.2.1}. On land, particularly sensitive ecosystems include old-growth forests, insular ecosystems, and wetlands; and only around 25 per cent of land is sufficiently unimpacted that ecological and evolutionary processes still operate with minimal human intervention (established but incomplete) {2.2.3.4.1, 2.2.5.2.1}. In terrestrial “hotspots” of endemic species, natural habitats have generally undergone greater reductions to date in extent and condition, and tend to be experiencing more rapid ongoing decline, on average than other terrestrial regions {2.2.5.2.1}. Globally, the net rate of forest loss has halved since the 1990s, largely because of net increases in temperate and high latitude forests; high-biodiversity tropical forests continue to dwindle, and global forest area is now approximately 68 per cent of the estimated pre-industrial level (established but incomplete) {2.2.5.2.1}. Forests and natural mosaics sufficiently undamaged to be classed as “intact” (defined as being larger than 500 km2 where satellites can detect no human pressure) were reduced by 7 per cent (919, 000 km2) between 2000 and 2013, shrinking in both developed and developing countries {2.2.5.2.1}. Inland waters and freshwater ecosystems show among the highest rates of decline. Only 13 per cent of the wetland present in 1700 remained by 2000; recent losses have been even more rapid (0.8 per cent per year from 1970 to 2008) (established but incomplete) {2.2.7.9}.

1. Global indicators of ecosystem extent and condition have shown a decrease by an average of 47 per cent of their estimated natural baselines, with many continuing to decline by at least 4 per cent per decade
   2.2.5.2.1
   established but incomplete
2. On land, particularly sensitive ecosystems include old-growth forests, insular ecosystems, and wetlands; and only around 25 per cent of land is sufficiently unimpacted that ecological and evolutionary processes still operate with minimal human intervention
   2.2.3.4.1, 2.2.5.2.1
   established but incomplete
3. In terrestrial "hotspots" of endemic species, natural habitats have generally undergone greater reductions to date in extent and condition, and tend to be experiencing more rapid ongoing decline, on average than other terrestrial regions
   2.2.5.2.1
   n/a
4. Globally, the net rate of forest loss has halved since the 1990s, largely because of net increases in temperate and high latitude forests; high-biodiversity tropical forests continue to dwindle, and global forest area is now approximately 68 per cent of the estimated pre-industrial level
   2.2.5.2.1
   established but incomplete
5. Forests and natural mosaics sufficiently undamaged to be classed as "intact" (defined as being larger than 500 km2 where satellites can detect no human pressure) were reduced by 7 per cent (919, 000 km2) between 2000 and 2013, shrinking in both developed and developing countries
   2.2.5.2.1
   n/a
6. Inland waters and freshwater ecosystems show among the highest rates of decline. Only 13 per cent of the wetland present in 1700 remained by 2000; recent losses have been even more rapid (0.8 per cent per year from 1970 to 2008)
   2.2.7.9
   established but incomplete

A4 -- bm_label

Humanity is a dominant global influence on life on earth, and has caused natural terrestrial, freshwater and marine ecosystems to decline (well established) {2.2.5.2} (Figure SPM.2).

1. Humanity is a dominant global influence on life on earth, and has caused natural terrestrial, freshwater and marine ecosystems to decline
   2.2.5.2
   well established

A5 -- bm_description

Over 40 per cent of ocean area was strongly affected by multiple drivers in 2008, and 66 per cent was experiencing increasing cumulative impacts in 2014. Only 3 per cent of the ocean was described as free from human pressure in 2014 (established but incomplete) {2.2.5.2.1, 3.2.1}. Seagrass meadows decreased in extent by over 10 per cent per decade from 1970 to 2000 (established but incomplete) {2.2.5.2.1}. Live coral cover on reefs has nearly halved in the past 150 years, the decline dramatically accelerating over the past two or three decades due to increased water temperature and ocean acidification interacting with and further exacerbating other drivers of loss (well established) {2.2.5.2.1}. These coastal marine ecosystems are among the most productive systems globally, and their loss and deterioration reduce their ability to protect shorelines, and the people and species that live there, from storms, as well as their ability to provide sustainable livelihoods (well established) {2.2.5.2.1, 2.3.5.2}. Severe impacts to ocean ecosystems are illustrated by 33 per cent of fish stocks being classified as overexploited and greater than 55 per cent of ocean area being subject to industrial fishing (established but incomplete) {2.1.11.1; 2.2.5.2.4, 2.2.7.16}.

1. Over 40 per cent of ocean area was strongly affected by multiple drivers in 2008, and 66 per cent was experiencing increasing cumulative impacts in 2014. Only 3 per cent of the ocean was described as free from human pressure in 2014.
   2.2.5.2.1, 3.2.1
   established but incomplete
2. Seagrass meadows decreased in extent by over 10 per cent per decade from 1970 to 2000
   2.2.5.2.1
   established but incomplete
3. Live coral cover on reefs has nearly halved in the past 150 years, the decline dramatically accelerating over the past two or three decades due to increased water temperature and ocean acidification interacting with and further exacerbating other drivers of loss
   2.2.5.2.1
   well established
4. These coastal marine ecosystems are among the most productive systems globally, and their loss and deterioration reduce their ability to protect shorelines, and the people and species that live there, from storms, as well as their ability to provide sustainable livelihoods.
   2.2.5.2.1, 2.3.5.2
   well established
5. Severe impacts to ocean ecosystems are illustrated by 33 per cent of fish stocks being classified as overexploited and greater than 55 per cent of ocean area being subject to industrial fishing
   2.1.11.1; 2.2.5.2.4, 2.2.7.16
   established but incomplete

A5 -- bm_label

Marine ecosystems, from coastal to deep sea, now show the influence of human actions, with coastal marine ecosystems showing both large historical losses of extent and condition as well as rapid ongoing declines (established but incomplete) {2.2.5.2.1, 2.2.7.15} (Figure SPM.2).

1. Marine ecosystems, from coastal to deep sea, now show the influence of human actions, with coastal marine ecosystems showing both large historical losses of extent and condition as well as rapid ongoing declines.
   2.2.5.2.1, 2.2.7.15
   established but incomplete

A6 -- bm_description

Human actions have already driven at least 680 vertebrate species to extinction since 1500, including the Pinta Giant Tortoise in the Galapagos in 2012, even though successful conservation efforts have saved from extinction at least 26 bird species and 6 ungulate species, including the Arabian Oryx and Przewalski’s Horse {3.2.1}. The threat of extinction is also accelerating: in the best-studied taxonomic groups, most of the total extinction risk to species is estimated to have arisen in the past 40 years (established but incomplete) {2.2.5.2.4}. The proportion of species currently threatened with extinction according to the International Union for the Conservation of Nature’s Red List criteria averages around 25 per cent across the many terrestrial, freshwater and marine vertebrate, invertebrate and plant groups that have been studied in sufficient detail to support a robust overall estimate (established but incomplete) {2.2.5.2.4, 3.2}. More than 40 per cent of amphibian species, almost a third of reef-forming corals, sharks and shark relatives and over a third of marine mammals are currently threatened {2.2.5.2.4, 3}. The proportion of insect species threatened with extinction is a key uncertainty, but available evidence supports a tentative estimate of 10 per cent (established but incomplete) {2.2.5.2.4}. Those proportions suggest that, of an estimated 8 million animal and plant species (75 per cent of which are insects), around 1 million are threatened with extinction (established but incomplete) {2.2.5.2.4}. A similar picture also emerges from an entirely separate line of evidence. Habitat loss and deterioration, largely caused by human actions, have reduced global terrestrial habitat integrity by 30 per cent relative to an unimpacted baseline; combining that with the longstanding relationship between habitat area and species numbers suggests that around 9 per cent of the world’s estimated 5.9 million terrestrial species – more than 500,000 species – have insufficient habitat for long-term survival, and are committed to extinction, many within decades, unless their habitats are restored (established but incomplete){2.2.5.2.4}. Population declines often give warning that a species’ risk of extinction is increasing. The Living Planet Index, which synthesises trends in vertebrate populations, shows that species have declined rapidly since 1970, with reductions of 40 per cent for terrestrial species, 84 per cent for freshwater species and 35 per cent for marine species (established but incomplete) {2.2.5.2.4}. Local declines of insect populations such as wild bees and butterflies have often been reported, and insect abundance has declined very rapidly in some places even without large-scale land-use change, but the global extent of such declines is not known (established but incomplete) {2.2.5.2.4}. On land, wild species that are endemic (narrowly distributed) have typically seen larger-than-average changes to their habitats and shown faster-than-average declines (established but incomplete) {2.2.5.2.3, 2.2.5.2.4}.

1. Human actions have already driven at least 680 vertebrate species to extinction since 1500, including the Pinta Giant Tortoise in the Galapagos in 2012, even though successful conservation efforts have saved from extinction at least 26 bird species and 6 ungulate species, including the Arabian Oryx and Przewalski’s Horse.
   3.2.1
   n/a
2. The threat of extinction is also accelerating: in the best-studied taxonomic groups, most of the total extinction risk to species is estimated to have arisen in the past 40 years
   2.2.5.2.4
   established but incomplete
3. The proportion of species currently threatened with extinction according to the International Union for the Conservation of Nature’s Red List criteria averages around 25 per cent across the many terrestrial, freshwater and marine vertebrate, invertebrate and plant groups that have been studied in sufficient detail to support a robust overall estimate
   2.2.5.2.4, 3.2
   established but incomplete
4. More than 40 per cent of amphibian species, almost a third of reef-forming corals, sharks and shark relatives and over a third of marine mammals are currently threatened
   2.2.5.2.4, 3
   n/a
5. The proportion of insect species threatened with extinction is a key uncertainty, but available evidence supports a tentative estimate of 10 per cent
   2.2.5.2.4
   established but incomplete
6. Those proportions suggest that, of an estimated 8 million animal and plant species (75 per cent of which are insects), around 1 million are threatened with extinction
   2.2.5.2.4
   established but incomplete
7. A similar picture also emerges from an entirely separate line of evidence. Habitat loss and deterioration, largely caused by human actions, have reduced global terrestrial habitat integrity by 30 per cent relative to an unimpacted baseline; combining that with the longstanding relationship between habitat area and species numbers suggests that around 9 per cent of the world’s estimated 5.9 million terrestrial species – more than 500,000 species – have insufficient habitat for long-term survival, and are committed to extinction, many within decades, unless their habitats are restored
   2.2.5.2.4
   established but incomplete
8. Population declines often give warning that a species’ risk of extinction is increasing. The Living Planet Index, which synthesises trends in vertebrate populations, shows that species have declined rapidly since 1970, with reductions of 40 per cent for terrestrial species, 84 per cent for freshwater species and 35 per cent for marine species
   2.2.5.2.4
   established but incomplete
9. Local declines of insect populations such as wild bees and butterflies have often been reported, and insect abundance has declined very rapidly in some places even without large-scale land-use change, but the global extent of such declines is not known
   2.2.5.2.4
   established but incomplete
10. On land, wild species that are endemic (narrowly distributed) have typically seen larger-than-average changes to their habitats and shown faster-than-average declines
    2.2.5.2.3, 2.2.5.2.4
    established but incomplete

A6 -- bm_label

The global rate of species extinction is already at least tens to hundreds of times higher than the average rate over the past 10 million years and is accelerating (established but incomplete) {2.2.5.2.4} (Figure SPM.3).

1. The global rate of species extinction is already at least tens to hundreds of times higher than the average rate over the past 10 million years and is accelerating.
   2.2.5.2.4
   established but incomplete

A7 -- bm_description

Domestic varieties of plants and animals are the result of natural and human-managed selection, sometimes over centuries or millennia, and tend to show a high degree of adaptation (genotypic and phenotypic) to local conditions (well established) {2.2.4.4}. As a result, the pool of genetic variation which underpins food security has declined (well established) {2.2.5.2.6}. Ten per cent of domesticated breeds of mammals were recorded as extinct, as well as some 3.5 per cent of domesticated breeds of birds (well established) {2.2.5.2.6} Many hotspots of agrobiodiversity and crop wild relatives are also under threat or not formally protected. The conservation status of wild relatives of domesticated livestock has also deteriorated. These wild relatives represent critical reservoirs of genes and traits that may provide resilience against future climate change, pests and pathogens and may improve current heavily depleted gene pools of many crops and domestic animals {2.2.3.4.3}. The lands of indigenous peoples and local communities, including farmers, pastoralists and herders, are often important areas for in situ conservation of the remaining varieties and breeds (well established) {2.2.5.3.1}. Available data suggest that genetic diversity within wild species globally has been declining by about 1 per cent per decade since the mid-19th century; and genetic diversity within wild mammals and amphibians tends to be lower in areas where human influence is greater (established but incomplete) {2.2.5.2.6}.

1. Domestic varieties of plants and animals are the result of natural and human-managed selection, sometimes over centuries or millennia, and tend to show a high degree of adaptation (genotypic and phenotypic) to local conditions
   2.2.4.4
   well established
2. As a result, the pool of genetic variation which underpins food security has declined
   2.2.5.2.6
   well established
3. Ten per cent of domesticated breeds of mammals were recorded as extinct, as well as some 3.5 per cent of domesticated breeds of birds
   2.2.5.2.6
   well established
4. Many hotspots of agrobiodiversity and crop wild relatives are also under threat or not formally protected. The conservation status of wild relatives of domesticated livestock has also deteriorated. These wild relatives represent critical reservoirs of genes and traits that may provide resilience against future climate change, pests and pathogens and may improve current heavily depleted gene pools of many crops and domestic animals
   2.2.3.4.3
   n/a
5. The lands of indigenous peoples and local communities, including farmers, pastoralists and herders, are often important areas for in situ conservation of the remaining varieties and breeds
   2.2.5.3.1
   well established
6. Available data suggest that genetic diversity within wild species globally has been declining by about 1 per cent per decade since the mid-19th century; and genetic diversity within wild mammals and amphibians tends to be lower in areas where human influence is greater
   2.2.5.2.6
   established but incomplete

A7 -- bm_label

The number of local varieties and breeds of domesticated plants and animals and their wild relatives has been reduced sharply as a result of land use change, knowledge loss, market preferences and large-scale trade (well established) {2.2.5.2.6, 2.2.5.3.1}.

1. The number of local varieties and breeds of domesticated plants and animals and their wild relatives has been reduced sharply as a result of land use change, knowledge loss, market preferences and large-scale trade
   2.2.5.2.6, 2.2.5.3.1
   well established

A8 -- bm_description

Even though human-dominated landscapes are sometimes species-rich, their species composition is markedly altered from that in natural landscapes (well established) {2.2.5.2.3, 2.2.7.10, 2.2.7.11}. As a result of human-caused changes in community composition, naturally occurring species in local terrestrial ecosystems worldwide are estimated to have lost at least 20 per cent of their original abundance on average, with hotspots of endemic species tending to have lost even more (established but incomplete) {2.2.5.2.3}. The traits of species influence whether they persist or even thrive in human-modified ecosystems (well established) {2.2.3.6, 2.2.5.2.5}. For example, species that are large, grow slowly, are habitat specialists or are carnivores – such as great apes, tropical hardwood trees, sharks and big cats – are disappearing from many areas. Many other species, including those with opposite characteristics, are becoming more abundant locally and are spreading quickly around the world; across a set of 21 countries with detailed records, the numbers of invasive alien species per country have risen by some 70 per cent since 1970 {2.2.5.2.3}. The effects of invasive alien species are often particularly severe for the native species and assemblages on islands and in other settings with high proportions of endemic species (well established) {2.2.3.4.1, 2.2.5.2.3}. Invasive alien species can have devastating effects on mainland assemblages as well: for example, a single invasive pathogen species, Batrachochytrium dendrobatidis, is a threat to nearly 400 amphibian species worldwide and has already caused a number of extinctions (well established) {2.2.5.2.3}. Many drivers add already widespread species to ecological communities in many places; and many drivers cause endemic species to decline in many places. These two processes have contributed to the widespread erosion of differences between ecological communities in different places, a phenomenon known as biotic homogenization or the “anthropogenic blender” (well established) {2.2.5.2.3}. The consequences of all these changes for ecosystem processes and hence nature’s contributions to people can be very significant. For example, the decline and disappearance of large herbivores and predators has dramatically affected the structure, fire regimes, seed dispersal, land surface albedo and nutrient availability within many ecosystems (well established) {2.2.5.2.1}. However, the consequences of changes often depend on details of the ecosystem, remain hard to predict and are still understudied (established but incomplete) {2.2.5.2.3}.

1. Even though human-dominated landscapes are sometimes species-rich, their species composition is markedly altered from that in natural landscapes
   2.2.5.2.3, 2.2.7.10, 2.2.7.11
   well established
2. As a result of human-caused changes in community composition, naturally occurring species in local terrestrial ecosystems worldwide are estimated to have lost at least 20 per cent of their original abundance on average, with hotspots of endemic species tending to have lost even more
   2.2.5.2.3
   established but incomplete
3. The traits of species influence whether they persist or even thrive in human-modified ecosystems
   2.2.3.6, 2.2.5.2.5
   well established
4. For example, species that are large, grow slowly, are habitat specialists or are carnivores – such as great apes, tropical hardwood trees, sharks and big cats – are disappearing from many areas. Many other species, including those with opposite characteristics, are becoming more abundant locally and are spreading quickly around the world; across a set of 21 countries with detailed records, the numbers of invasive alien species per country have risen by some 70 per cent since 1970
   2.2.5.2.3
   n/a
5. The effects of invasive alien species are often particularly severe for the native species and assemblages on islands and in other settings with high proportions of endemic species
   2.2.3.4.1, 2.2.5.2.3
   well established
6. Invasive alien species can have devastating effects on mainland assemblages as well: for example, a single invasive pathogen species, Batrachochytrium dendrobatidis, is a threat to nearly 400 amphibian species worldwide and has already caused a number of extinctions
   2.2.5.2.3
   well established
7. Many drivers add already widespread species to ecological communities in many places; and many drivers cause endemic species to decline in many places. These two processes have contributed to the widespread erosion of differences between ecological communities in different places, a phenomenon known as biotic homogenization or the "anthropogenic blender"
   2.2.5.2.3
   well established
8. The consequences of all these changes for ecosystem processes and hence nature’s contributions to people can be very significant. For example, the decline and disappearance of large herbivores and predators has dramatically affected the structure, fire regimes, seed dispersal, land surface albedo and nutrient availability within many ecosystems
   2.2.5.2.1
   well established
9. However, the consequences of changes often depend on details of the ecosystem, remain hard to predict and are still understudied.
   2.2.5.2.3
   established but incomplete

A8 -- bm_label

Human-driven changes in species diversity within local ecological communities vary widely, depending on the net balance between species loss and the influx of alien species, disturbance-tolerant species, other human-adapted species or climate migrant species (well established) {2.2.5.2.3}.

1. Human-driven changes in species diversity within local ecological communities vary widely, depending on the net balance between species loss and the influx of alien species, disturbance-tolerant species, other human-adapted species or climate migrant species
   2.2.5.2.3
   well established

A9 -- bm_description

Management decisions that take those evolutionary changes into account will be noticeably more effective (established but incomplete) {Box 2.5}. This human-driven contemporary evolution, which has long been recognized in microbes, viruses, agricultural insect pests and weeds (well established), is now being observed in some species within all major taxonomic groups (animals, plants, fungi and microorganisms). Such changes are known to occur in response to human activities or drivers, such as hunting, fishing, harvesting, climate change, ocean acidification, soil and water pollution, invasive species, pathogens, pesticides and urbanization (established but incomplete) {2.2.5.2.5}. However, management strategies typically assume that evolutionary changes occur only over much longer time periods and thus ignore rapid evolution. These policy considerations span many spheres in which management actions designed to slow or speed evolution can dramatically change outcomes, as the following examples indicate. Insects, weeds and pathogens evolve resistance to insecticides, herbicides and other control agents, yet management strategies such as refuges, crop rotation, and crop diversity can dramatically slow that undesirable evolution (well established) {Box 2.5}. Commercial fish populations have evolved to mature earlier under intensive harvesting, which sometimes can be minimized by mandating changes in fishing gear or fish size limits (established but incomplete) {2.2.5.2.5}. Climate change favours the evolution of seasonally earlier reproduction in many organisms, which can in principle be facilitated through the introduction of individuals from populations already adapted to such conditions (established but incomplete) {2.2.5.2.5}. Mosquitoes rapidly evolve resistance to efforts to control them, but evolutionarily informed management actions can dramatically slow that undesirable evolution (established but incomplete) {2.2.5.2.5}. Contemporary evolution is thus relevant to many policy concerns. Understanding and working with contemporary evolution can address important concerns surrounding pollination and dispersal, coral persistence in the face of ocean acidification, water quality, pest regulation, food production and options for the future (established but incomplete). The specific actions taken will typically be case-specific and therefore will require careful assessment of evolutionary potential and consequences. In many cases, the best strategy could be to simply maintain the ability of natural populations to respond evolutionarily on their own - rather than through direct human manipulation of evolution. B. Direct and indirect drivers of change have accelerated during the past 50 years

1. Management decisions that take those evolutionary changes into account will be noticeably more effective
   Box 2.5
   established but incomplete
2. This human-driven contemporary evolution, which has long been recognized in microbes, viruses, agricultural insect pests and weeds, will be noticeably more effective when management decisions take those evolutionary changes into account.
   n/a
   well established
3. This human-driven contemporary evolution is now being observed in some species within all major taxonomic groups (animals, plants, fungi and microorganisms). Such changes are known to occur in response to human activities or drivers, such as hunting, fishing, harvesting, climate change, ocean acidification, soil and water pollution, invasive species, pathogens, pesticides and urbanization.
   2.2.5.2.5
   established but incomplete
4. However, management strategies typically assume that evolutionary changes occur only over much longer time periods and thus ignore rapid evolution. These policy considerations span many spheres in which management actions designed to slow or speed evolution can dramatically change outcomes, as the following examples indicate. Insects, weeds and pathogens evolve resistance to insecticides, herbicides and other control agents, yet management strategies such as refuges, crop rotation, and crop diversity can dramatically slow that undesirable evolution
   Box 2.5
   well established
5. Commercial fish populations have evolved to mature earlier under intensive harvesting, which sometimes can be minimized by mandating changes in fishing gear or fish size limits
   2.2.5.2.5
   established but incomplete
6. Climate change favours the evolution of seasonally earlier reproduction in many organisms, which can in principle be facilitated through the introduction of individuals from populations already adapted to such conditions
   2.2.5.2.5
   established but incomplete
7. Mosquitoes rapidly evolve resistance to efforts to control them, but evolutionarily informed management actions can dramatically slow that undesirable evolution
   2.2.5.2.5
   established but incomplete
8. Contemporary evolution is thus relevant to many policy concerns. Understanding and working with contemporary evolution can address important concerns surrounding pollination and dispersal, coral persistence in the face of ocean acidification, water quality, pest regulation, food production and options for the future
   n/a
   established but incomplete
9. The specific actions taken will typically be case-specific and therefore will require careful assessment of evolutionary potential and consequences. In many cases, the best strategy could be to simply maintain the ability of natural populations to respond evolutionarily on their own - rather than through direct human manipulation of evolution. B. Direct and indirect drivers of change have accelerated during the past 50 years
   n/a
   n/a

A9 -- bm_label

Many organisms show ongoing biological evolution so rapid that it is detectable within only a few years or even more quickly – in response to anthropogenic drivers (well established) {2.2.5.2.5, 2.2.5.2.6}.

1. Many organisms show ongoing biological evolution so rapid that it is detectable within only a few years or even more quickly – in response to anthropogenic drivers
   2.2.5.2.5, 2.2.5.2.6
   well established

Direct and indirect drivers of change have accelerated during the past 50 years (B.)

B1 -- bm_description

Although the pace of agricultural expansion into intact ecosystems {2.1.13} has varied from country to country, losses of intact ecosystems have occurred primarily in the tropics, home to the highest levels of biodiversity on the planet (for example, 100 million hectares of tropical forest from 1980 to 2000), due to cattle ranching in Latin America (~42 million ha) and plantations in South-East Asia (~7.5 million hectares, 80 per cent in oil palm) among others {2.1.13}, noting that plantations can also increase total forest area. Within land-use change, urban areas have more than doubled since 1992. In terms of direct exploitation, approximately 60 billion tons of renewable and non-renewable resources {2.1.2} are being extracted each year. That total has nearly doubled since 1980, as population has grown considerably while the average per capita consumption of materials (e.g., plants, animals, fossil fuels, ores, construction material) has risen by 15 per cent since 1980 (established but incomplete) {2.1.6, 2.1.11, 2.1.14}. This activity has generated unprecedented impacts: since 1980, greenhouse gas emissions have doubled {2.1.11, 2.1.12}, raising average global temperatures by at least 0.7 °C {2.1.12}, while plastic pollution in oceans has increased tenfold {2.1.15}. Over 80 per cent of global wastewater is being discharged back into the environment without treatment, while 300–400 million tons of heavy metals, solvents, toxic sludge and other wastes from industrial facilities are dumped into the world’s waters each year {2.1.15}. Excessive or inappropriate application of fertilizer can lead to run-off from fields and enter freshwater and coastal ecosystems, producing more than 400 hypoxic zones that affected a total area of more than 245,000 km2 as early as 2008{2.1.15}. In some island countries, invasive alien species have a significant impact on biodiversity, with introduced species being a key driver of extinctions.

1. Although the pace of agricultural expansion into intact ecosystems
   2.1.13
   n/a
2. Although the pace of agricultural expansion into intact ecosystems has varied from country to country, losses of intact ecosystems have occurred primarily in the tropics, home to the highest levels of biodiversity on the planet (for example, 100 million hectares of tropical forest from 1980 to 2000), due to cattle ranching in Latin America (~42 million ha) and plantations in South-East Asia (~7.5 million hectares, 80 per cent in oil palm) among others.
   2.1.13
   n/a
3. Noting that plantations can also increase total forest area. Within land-use change, urban areas have more than doubled since 1992. In terms of direct exploitation, approximately 60 billion tons of renewable and non-renewable resources
   2.1.2
   n/a
4. Approximately 60 billion tons of renewable and non-renewable resources are being extracted each year. That total has nearly doubled since 1980, as population has grown considerably while the average per capita consumption of materials (e.g., plants, animals, fossil fuels, ores, construction material) has risen by 15 per cent since 1980.
   2.1.6, 2.1.11, 2.1.14
   established but incomplete
5. This activity has generated unprecedented impacts: since 1980, greenhouse gas emissions have doubled
   2.1.11, 2.1.12
   n/a
6. raising average global temperatures by at least 0.7 °C
   2.1.12
   n/a
7. This activity has generated unprecedented impacts while plastic pollution in oceans has increased tenfold.
   2.1.15
   n/a
8. Over 80 per cent of global wastewater is being discharged back into the environment without treatment, while 300–400 million tons of heavy metals, solvents, toxic sludge and other wastes from industrial facilities are dumped into the world’s waters each year.
   2.1.15
   n/a
9. Excessive or inappropriate application of fertilizer can lead to run-off from fields and enter freshwater and coastal ecosystems, producing more than 400 hypoxic zones that affected a total area of more than 245,000 km2 as early as 2008
   2.1.15
   n/a
10. In some island countries, invasive alien species have a significant impact on biodiversity, with introduced species being a key driver of extinctions.
    n/a
    n/a

B1 -- bm_label

Today, humans extract more from the Earth and produce more waste than ever before (well established). Globally, land-use change is the direct driver with the largest relative impact on terrestrial and freshwater ecosystems, while direct exploitation of fish and seafood has the largest relative impact in the oceans (well established) (Figure SPM.2) {2.2.6.2}. Climate change, pollution and invasive alien species have had a lower relative impact to date but are accelerating (established but incomplete) {2.2.6.2, 3.2, 4.2}.

1. Today, humans extract more from the Earth and produce more waste than ever before.
   n/a
   well established
2. Globally, land-use change is the direct driver with the largest relative impact on terrestrial and freshwater ecosystems, while direct exploitation of fish and seafood has the largest relative impact in the oceans
   n/a
   well established
3. Climate change, pollution and invasive alien species have had a lower relative impact to date but are accelerating
   2.2.6.2, 3.2, 4.2
   established but incomplete

B10 -- bm_description

The incorporation by society of the value of nature’s contributions to people will entail shifts in governance even within private supply chains, for instance when civil society certifies and helps to reward desired practices, or when States block access to markets because of undesirable practices {2.1.7}. Successful local governance supported by recognition of local rights has often incorporated knowledge of how nature contributes to human wellbeing to motivate such behaviours {2.1.8}. National agencies have also promoted land management strategies that are more sustainable and introduced regulations, among other policy measures {2.1.9.2}, and have coordinated with other nations on global agreements to maintain nature’s contributions to people (2.1.10}. Economic instruments that may be harmful to nature include subsidies, financial transfers, subsidized credit, tax abatements, and prices for commodities and industrial goods that hide environmental and social costs. Such instruments favour unsustainable production and, as a consequence, can promote deforestation, overfishing, urban sprawl, and wasteful uses of water. In 2015, agricultural support potentially harmful to nature amounted to $100 billion in countries belonging to the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development, although some subsidy reforms to reduce unsustainable pesticide uses and adjust several other consequential development practices have been introduced {2.1.9.1, 6.4.5}. Fossil fuel subsidies valued at $345 billion result in global costs of \(5 trillion when including the reduction of nature’s contributions (coal accounts for about half of these costs, petroleum for about one third and natural gas for about one tenth {2.1.9.1.2}</mark><mark style="background:#FFDEEB;">). In fisheries, subsidies to increase and maintain capacity, which in turn often lead to the degradation of nature, constitute perhaps a majority of the tens of US\) billions spent on supports {5.3.2.5}.

1. The incorporation by society of the value of nature’s contributions to people will entail shifts in governance even within private supply chains, for instance when civil society certifies and helps to reward desired practices, or when States block access to markets because of undesirable practices
   2.1.7
   n/a
2. Successful local governance supported by recognition of local rights has often incorporated knowledge of how nature contributes to human wellbeing to motivate such behaviours
   2.1.8
   n/a
3. National agencies have also promoted land management strategies that are more sustainable and introduced regulations, among other policy measures
   2.1.9.2
   n/a
4. National agencies have coordinated with other nations on global agreements to maintain nature’s contributions to people.
   n/a
   n/a
5. Economic instruments that may be harmful to nature include subsidies, financial transfers, subsidized credit, tax abatements, and prices for commodities and industrial goods that hide environmental and social costs. Such instruments favour unsustainable production and, as a consequence, can promote deforestation, overfishing, urban sprawl, and wasteful uses of water. In 2015, agricultural support potentially harmful to nature amounted to $100 billion in countries belonging to the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development, although some subsidy reforms to reduce unsustainable pesticide uses and adjust several other consequential development practices have been introduced
   2.1.9.1, 6.4.5
   n/a
6. Fossil fuel subsidies valued at $345 billion result in global costs of \(5 trillion when including the reduction of nature's contributions (coal accounts for about half of these costs, petroleum for about one third and natural gas for about one tenth).<br>2.1.9.1.2<br><strong>n/a</strong></li><li style="border-left: 4px solid #FFDEEB; padding-left: 8px; margin-bottom: 6px;">In fisheries, subsidies to increase and maintain capacity, which in turn often lead to the degradation of nature, constitute perhaps a majority of the tens of US\) billions spent on supports.
   5.3.2.5
   n/a

B10 -- bm_label

Governance has at many levels moved slowly to further and better incorporate into policies and incentives the values of nature’s contributions to people. However, around the globe, subsidies with harmful effects on nature have persisted (well established) {2.1, 3, 5, 6.4}.

1. Governance has at many levels moved slowly to further and better incorporate into policies and incentives the values of nature’s contributions to people. However, around the globe, subsidies with harmful effects on nature have persisted
   2.1, 3, 5, 6.4
   well established

B11 -- bm_description

Despite a long history of resource use, conservation conflicts related to colonial expansion and land appropriation for parks and other uses {3.2} (well established), indigenous peoples and local communities have often managed their landscapes and seascapes in ways that were adjusted to local conditions over generations. These management methods often remain compatible with or actively support biodiversity conservation by “accompanying” natural processes with anthropogenic assets (established but incomplete) {2.2.4, 2.2.5.3.1} (Figure SPM.5). At least one quarter of the global land area is traditionally managed, owned, used or occupied by indigenous peoples. These areas include approximately 35 per cent of the area that is formally protected, and approximately 35 per cent of all remaining terrestrial areas with very low human intervention (established but incomplete) {2.2.5.3.1}. Community-based conservation institutions and local governance regimes have often been effective, at times even more effective than formally established protected areas, in preventing habitat loss (established but incomplete). Several studies have highlighted contributions by indigenous peoples and local communities in limiting deforestation, as well as initiatives showing synergies between these different mechanisms (well established) {6.3.2, 2.2.5.3}. In many regions, however, the lands of indigenous peoples are becoming islands of biological and cultural diversity surrounded by areas in which nature has further deteriorated (established but incomplete) {2.2.5.3}. Among the local indicators developed and used by indigenous peoples and local communities, 72 per cent show negative trends in nature that underpinned local livelihoods (established but incomplete) {2.2.5.3.2}. Major trends include declining availability of resources – due in part to legal and illegal territory reductions, despite expanding indigenous populations – as well as declining health and populations of culturally important species; new pests and invasive alien species as climate changes; losses in both natural forest habitats and grazing lands; and declining productivity in remnant ecosystems. A more detailed global synthesis of trends in nature observed by indigenous peoples and local communities is hindered by the lack of institutions that gather data for these locations and then synthesize them within regional and global summaries {2.2.2}. C. Goals for conserving and sustainably using nature and achieving sustainability cannot be met by current trajectories, and goals for 2030 and beyond may only be achieved through transformative changes across economic, social, political and technological factors

1. Despite a long history of resource use, conservation conflicts related to colonial expansion and land appropriation for parks and other uses
   3.2
   well established
2. Indigenous peoples and local communities have often managed their landscapes and seascapes in ways that were adjusted to local conditions over generations. These management methods often remain compatible with or actively support biodiversity conservation by "accompanying" natural processes with anthropogenic assets.
   2.2.4, 2.2.5.3.1
   established but incomplete
3. (Figure SPM.5). At least one quarter of the global land area is traditionally managed, owned, used or occupied by indigenous peoples. These areas include approximately 35 per cent of the area that is formally protected, and approximately 35 per cent of all remaining terrestrial areas with very low human intervention
   2.2.5.3.1
   established but incomplete
4. Community-based conservation institutions and local governance regimes have often been effective, at times even more effective than formally established protected areas, in preventing habitat loss.
   n/a
   established but incomplete
5. Several studies have highlighted contributions by indigenous peoples and local communities in limiting deforestation, as well as initiatives showing synergies between these different mechanisms.
   6.3.2, 2.2.5.3
   well established
6. In many regions, however, the lands of indigenous peoples are becoming islands of biological and cultural diversity surrounded by areas in which nature has further deteriorated.
   2.2.5.3
   established but incomplete
7. Among the local indicators developed and used by indigenous peoples and local communities, 72 per cent show negative trends in nature that underpinned local livelihoods
   2.2.5.3.2
   established but incomplete
8. Major trends include declining availability of resources – due in part to legal and illegal territory reductions, despite expanding indigenous populations – as well as declining health and populations of culturally important species; new pests and invasive alien species as climate changes; losses in both natural forest habitats and grazing lands; and declining productivity in remnant ecosystems. A more detailed global synthesis of trends in nature observed by indigenous peoples and local communities is hindered by the lack of institutions that gather data for these locations and then synthesize them within regional and global summaries.
   2.2.2
   n/a
9. C. Goals for conserving and sustainably using nature and achieving sustainability cannot be met by current trajectories, and goals for 2030 and beyond may only be achieved through transformative changes across economic, social, political and technological factors
   n/a
   n/a

B11 -- bm_label

Much of the world’s terrestrial wild and domesticated biodiversity lies in areas traditionally managed, owned, used or occupied by indigenous peoples and local communities (well established) (Figure SPM.5) {2.2.4}. In spite of efforts at all levels, although nature on indigenous lands is declining less rapidly than elsewhere, biodiversity and the knowledge associated with its management are still deteriorating (established but incomplete) {2.2.4, 2.2.5.3}.

1. Much of the world’s terrestrial wild and domesticated biodiversity lies in areas traditionally managed, owned, used or occupied by indigenous peoples and local communities.
   n/a
   well established
2. In spite of efforts at all levels, although nature on indigenous lands is declining less rapidly than elsewhere, biodiversity and the knowledge associated with its management are still deteriorating.
   2.2.4, 2.2.5.3
   established but incomplete

B2 -- bm_description

Over one third of the world’s land surface and nearly three-quarters of available freshwater resources are devoted to crop or livestock production {2.1.11}. Crop production occurs on some 12 per cent of total ice-free land. Grazing occurs on about 25 per cent of total ice-free lands and approximately 70 per cent of drylands {2.1.11}. Approximately 25 per cent of the globe’s greenhouse gas emissions come from land clearing, crop production and fertilization, with animal-based food contributing 75 per cent of that. Intensive agriculture has increased food production at the cost of regulating and non-material contributions from nature, though environmentally beneficial practices are increasing. Small landholdings (less than 2 hectares) contribute approximately 30 per cent of global crop production and 30 per cent of the global food caloric supply, using around a quarter of agricultural land and usually maintaining rich agrobiodiversity {2.1.11}. Moving to logging, between 1990 and 2015, clearing and wood harvest contributed to a total reduction of 290 million hectares in native forest cover, while the area of planted forests grew by 110 million hectares {2.1.11}. Industrial roundwood harvest is falling within some developed countries but rising on average in developing countries {2.1.11}. Illegal timber harvests and related trade supply 10–15 per cent of global timber, and up to 50 per cent in certain areas, hurting revenues for state owners and livelihoods for the rural poor. All mining on land has increased dramatically and, while still using less than 1 per cent of the Earth’s land, has had significant negative impacts on biodiversity, emissions of highly toxic pollutants, water quality and water distribution, and human health {2.1.11}. Mined products contribute more than 60 per cent of the GDP of 81 countries. There are approximately 17,000 large-scale mining sites in 171 countries, with the legal sites mostly managed by international corporations, but there is also extensive illegal and small-scale mining that is harder to trace, and both types of sites are often in locations relevant for biodiversity {2.1.11}.

B2 -- bm_label

Land-use change is driven primarily by agriculture, forestry and urbanization, all of which are associated with air, water and soil pollution.

B3 -- bm_description

Global fish catches have been sustained by expanding fishing geographically and penetrating into deeper waters (well established) {3.2.1}. An increasing proportion of marine fish stocks are overfished (33 per cent in 2015), including stocks of economically important species, while 60 per cent are maximally sustainably fished and only 7 per cent are underfished (well established) {Box 3.1}. Industrial fishing, concentrated in a few countries and corporations {2.1.11}, covers at least 55 per cent of the oceans, largely concentrated in the northeast Atlantic, the northwest Pacific and upwelling regions off South America and West Africa (established but incomplete) {2.1.11}. Small-scale fisheries account for more than 90 per cent of commercial fishers (over 30 million people), and nearly half of global fish catch (established but incomplete). In 2011, illegal, unreported or unregulated fishing represented up to one third of the world’s reported catch (established but incomplete) {2.1.11}. Since 1992, regional fisheries bodies have been adopting sustainable development principles. For instance, more than 170 members of the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (FAO) adopted the Code of Conduct for Responsible Fisheries in 1995, and as of 1 April 2018, 52 countries and one member organization had become Parties to the Agreement on Port State Measures to Prevent, Deter and Eliminate Illegal, Unreported and Unregulated Fishing, in order to address the depletion of marine fisheries (established but incomplete) {2.1.11}, reduce by-catch {3, box 3.3} and lower damage to seabeds and reefs. In addition, the set of established marine protected areas has been growing (well established) {2.1.11.1, 2.2.7.16}.

1. Global fish catches have been sustained by expanding fishing geographically and penetrating into deeper waters
   3.2.1
   well established
2. An increasing proportion of marine fish stocks are overfished (33 per cent in 2015), including stocks of economically important species, while 60 per cent are maximally sustainably fished and only 7 per cent are underfished
   Box 3.1
   n/a
3. Industrial fishing is concentrated in a few countries and corporations.
   2.1.11
   n/a
4. Industrial fishing covers at least 55 per cent of the oceans, largely concentrated in the northeast Atlantic, the northwest Pacific and upwelling regions off South America and West Africa.
   2.1.11
   established but incomplete
5. Small-scale fisheries account for more than 90 per cent of commercial fishers (over 30 million people), and nearly half of global fish catch
   n/a
   established but incomplete
6. In 2011, illegal, unreported or unregulated fishing represented up to one third of the world’s reported catch
   2.1.11
   established but incomplete
7. Since 1992, regional fisheries bodies have been adopting sustainable development principles. For instance, more than 170 members of the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (FAO) adopted the Code of Conduct for Responsible Fisheries in 1995, and as of 1 April 2018, 52 countries and one member organization had become Parties to the Agreement on Port State Measures to Prevent, Deter and Eliminate Illegal, Unreported and Unregulated Fishing, in order to address the depletion of marine fisheries
   2.1.11
   established but incomplete
8. Sustainable development principles can reduce by-catch.
   3, box 3.3
   n/a
9. Sustainable development principles reduce by-catch and lower damage to seabeds and reefs. In addition, the set of established marine protected areas has been growing.
   2.1.11.1, 2.2.7.16
   well established

B3 -- bm_label

In marine systems, fishing has had the most impact on biodiversity (target species, non-target species and habitats) in the past 50 years alongside other significant drivers (well established) {2.1.11, 2.2.6.2} (Figure SPM.2).

1. In marine systems, fishing has had the most impact on biodiversity (target species, non-target species and habitats) in the past 50 years alongside other significant drivers
   2.1.11, 2.2.6.2
   well established

B4 -- bm_description

Coastal habitats, including estuaries and deltas critical for marine biota and regional economies, have been severely affected by sea-use changes (coastal development, offshore aquaculture, mariculture and bottom trawling) and land-use changes (onshore land clearance and urban sprawl along coastlines, plus pollution of rivers). Pollution from land sources is already a major driver of negative environmental change. Ocean mining, while relatively small, has expanded since 1981 to ~ 6,500 offshore oil and gas installations worldwide in 53 countries (60 per cent in the Gulf of Mexico by 2003) and likely will expand into the Arctic and Antarctic regions as the ice melts {2.1.11}. Ocean acidification from increased carbon dioxide levels largely affects shallow waters, with the ecosystems of the subarctic Pacific and western Arctic Ocean particularly affected. Plastic microparticles and nanoparticles are entering food webs in poorly understood ways {2.1.15.3}. Coastal waters hold the highest levels of metals and persistent organic pollutants from industrial discharge and agricultural run-off, poisoning coastal fish harvests. Severe effects from excess nutrient concentrations in certain locations include damage to fish and seabed biota. The dynamics of ocean and airborne transport of pollutants mean that the harm from inputs of plastics, persistent organic pollutants, heavy metals and ocean acidification is felt worldwide, including with consequences for human health.

1. Coastal habitats, including estuaries and deltas critical for marine biota and regional economies, have been severely affected by sea-use changes (coastal development, offshore aquaculture, mariculture and bottom trawling) and land-use changes (onshore land clearance and urban sprawl along coastlines, plus pollution of rivers). Pollution from land sources is already a major driver of negative environmental change. Ocean mining, while relatively small, has expanded since 1981 to ~ 6,500 offshore oil and gas installations worldwide in 53 countries (60 per cent in the Gulf of Mexico by 2003) and likely will expand into the Arctic and Antarctic regions as the ice melts.
   2.1.11
   n/a
2. Ocean acidification from increased carbon dioxide levels largely affects shallow waters, with the ecosystems of the subarctic Pacific and western Arctic Ocean particularly affected. Plastic microparticles and nanoparticles are entering food webs in poorly understood ways
   2.1.15.3
   n/a
3. Coastal waters hold the highest levels of metals and persistent organic pollutants from industrial discharge and agricultural run-off, poisoning coastal fish harvests. Severe effects from excess nutrient concentrations in certain locations include damage to fish and seabed biota. The dynamics of ocean and airborne transport of pollutants mean that the harm from inputs of plastics, persistent organic pollutants, heavy metals and ocean acidification is felt worldwide, including with consequences for human health.
   n/a
   n/a

B4 -- bm_label

The direct driver with the second highest relative impact on the oceans is the many changes in the uses of the sea and coastal land (well established) (Figure SPM.2) {2.2.6.2}.

1. The direct driver with the second highest relative impact on the oceans is the many changes in the uses of the sea and coastal land.
   n/a
   well established

B5 -- bm_description

Shifts in species distribution, changes in phenology, altered population dynamics and changes in the composition of species assemblage or the structure and function of ecosystems, are evident {2.2.5.3.2, 2.2.5.2.3, 2.2.6.2} and accelerating in marine, terrestrial and freshwater systems (well established) {2.2.3.2}. Almost half (47 per cent) of threatened terrestrial mammals, excluding bats, and one quarter (23 per cent) of threatened birds may have already been negatively affected by climate change in at least part of their distribution (birds in North America and Europe suggest effects of climate change in their population trends since the 1980s) (established but incomplete) {2.2.6.2}. Ecosystems such as tundra and taiga and regions such as Greenland, previously little affected by people directly, are increasingly experiencing the impacts of climate change (well established) {2.2.7.5}. Large reductions and local extinctions of populations are widespread (well established) {2.2.6.2}. This indicates that many species are unable to cope locally with the rapid pace of climate change, through either evolutionary or behavioural processes, and that their continued existence will also depend on the extent to which they are able to disperse, to track suitable climatic conditions, and to preserve their capacity to evolve (well established) {2.2.5.2.5}. Many of these changes can have significant impacts on a number of important economic sectors, and cascading effects for other components of biodiversity. Island nations, in particular those in East Asia and the Pacific region, will be most vulnerable to sea-level rise (1m) as projected by all climate change scenarios, {2.1.1.7.1} which will displace close to 40 million people {2.1.1.7.1; 2.2.7.1.8}.

1. Shifts in species distribution, changes in phenology, altered population dynamics and changes in the composition of species assemblage or the structure and function of ecosystems, are evident
   2.2.5.3.2, 2.2.5.2.3, 2.2.6.2
   n/a
2. Shifts in species distribution, changes in phenology, altered population dynamics and changes in the composition of species assemblage or the structure and function of ecosystems are accelerating in marine, terrestrial and freshwater systems.
   2.2.3.2
   well established
3. Almost half (47 per cent) of threatened terrestrial mammals, excluding bats, and one quarter (23 per cent) of threatened birds may have already been negatively affected by climate change in at least part of their distribution (birds in North America and Europe suggest effects of climate change in their population trends since the 1980s)
   2.2.6.2
   established but incomplete
4. Ecosystems such as tundra and taiga and regions such as Greenland, previously little affected by people directly, are increasingly experiencing the impacts of climate change
   2.2.7.5
   well established
5. Large reductions and local extinctions of populations are widespread
   2.2.6.2
   well established
6. This indicates that many species are unable to cope locally with the rapid pace of climate change, through either evolutionary or behavioural processes, and that their continued existence will also depend on the extent to which they are able to disperse, to track suitable climatic conditions, and to preserve their capacity to evolve.
   2.2.5.2.5
   well established
7. Many of these changes can have significant impacts on a number of important economic sectors, and cascading effects for other components of biodiversity. Island nations, in particular those in East Asia and the Pacific region, will be most vulnerable to sea-level rise (1m) as projected by all climate change scenarios.
   2.1.1.7.1
   n/a
8. Sea-level rise will displace close to 40 million people.
   2.1.1.7.1; 2.2.7.1.8
   n/a

B5 -- bm_label

Climate change is already having an impact on nature, from genes to ecosystems. It poses a growing risk owing to the accelerated pace of change and interactions with other direct drivers (well established) {2.1.12, 2.1.18, 2.2.6.2}.

1. Climate change is already having an impact on nature, from genes to ecosystems. It poses a growing risk owing to the accelerated pace of change and interactions with other direct drivers
   2.1.12, 2.1.18, 2.2.6.2
   well established

B6 -- bm_description

The global human population has increased from 3.7 to 7.6 billion since 1970 unevenly across countries and regions, which has strong implications for the degradation of nature. Per capita consumption also has grown, and also is unequal, with wide variations in lifestyles and access to resources across and within regions, plus consequences for nature that are distributed globally through trade. Total gross domestic product is four times higher and is rising faster in developed than in least developed countries. Approximately 821 million people face food insecurity in Asia and Africa, while 40 per cent of the global population lacks access to clean, safe drinking water. Generally, environmentally-based health burdens, such as air and water pollution, are more prevalent in least developed countries {2.1.2., 2.1.15}

B6 -- bm_label

Unsustainable use of the Earth’s resources is underpinned by a set of demographic and economic indirect drivers that have increased, and that furthermore interact in complex ways, including through trade (well established) {2.1.6}.

B7 -- bm_description

Globally, paved road lengths are projected to increase by 25 million kilometres by 2050, with nine tenths of all road construction occurring within least developed and developing countries. The number of dams has increased rapidly in the past 50 years. Worldwide, there are now about 50,000 large dams (higher than 15 metres) and approximately 17 million reservoirs (larger than 0.01 hectares or 100m2) {2.1.11}. The expansions of roads, cities, hydroelectric dams and oil and gas pipelines can come with high environmental and social costs, including deforestation, habitat fragmentation, biodiversity loss, land grabbing, population displacement and social disruption, including for indigenous peoples and local communities (established but incomplete). Yet infrastructure can generate positive economic effects and even environmental gains, based on efficiency, innovation, migration, and urbanization, depending on where and how investment is implemented and governed (well established) {2.1.11}. Understanding this variation in impacts is critical.

B7 -- bm_label

Due to expansions of infrastructure, extensive areas of the planet are being opened up to new threats (well established) {2.1.11}.

B8 -- bm_description

The rise in airborne and seaborne transportation of both goods and people, including a threefold increase in travel from developed and developing countries in particular, has increased pollution and significantly increased the presence of invasive alien species (well established) {2.1.15}. Between 2009 and 2013, the carbon footprint from tourism rose 40 per cent to 4.5 gigatons of carbon dioxide, and overall, 8 per cent of total greenhouse gas emissions are from tourism-related transportation and food consumption {2.1.11, 2.1.15}. The demand for nature-based tourism or ecotourism has also risen, with mixed effects on nature and local communities, including some potential for contributions to local conservation, in particular when carried out at a smaller scale {2.1.11}.

B8 -- bm_label

Long-distance transportation of goods and people, including for tourism, have grown dramatically in the past 20 years, with negative consequences for nature overall (established but incomplete).

B9 -- bm_description

As per capita consumption has risen, developed countries and rapidly growing developing countries {2.1.2, 2.1.6}, while at times supporting efficient production for exports, often reduce water consumption and forest degradation nationally {2.1.6, 2.1.11} by importing crops and other resources, mainly from developing countries {2.1.6}. The latter, as a result, see declines in nature and its contributions to people (habitat, climate, air and water quality) different from the exported food, fibre and timber products (Figures SPM.1) and (Figures SPM.5). Reduced, declining and unequal access to nature’s contributions to people may, in a complex interaction with other factors, be a source of conflict within and among countries (established but incomplete). Least developed countries, often rich in and more dependent upon natural resources, have suffered the greatest land degradation, have also experienced more conflict and lower economic growth, and have contributed to environmental outmigration by several million people {2.1.2, 2.1.4}. When indigenous peoples or local communities are expelled from or threatened on their lands, including by mining or industrial logging for export, this too can spark conflict – often between actors with different levels of power, as today a few actors can control large shares of any market or capital asset rivalling those of most countries {2.1.6}, while funds channelled through tax havens support most vessels implicated in illegal, unreported and unregulated fishing. More than 2,500 conflicts over fossil fuels, water, food and land are currently occurring across the planet, and at least 1,000 environmental activists and journalists were killed between 2002 and 2013 {2.1.11, 2.1.18}.

B9 -- bm_label

Distant areas of the world are increasingly connected, as consumption, production, and governance decisions increasingly influence materials, waste, energy, and information flows in other countries, generating aggregate economic gains while shifting economic and environmental costs, which can link to conflicts (established but incomplete) (Figure SPM.4).

Goals for conserving and sustainably using nature and achieving sustainability cannot be met by current trajectories, and goals for 2030 and beyond may only be achieved through transformative changes across economic, social, political and technological factors (C.)

C1 -- bm_description

By 2015, greater progress had been made in implementing policy responses and actions to conserve biodiversity for drivers with an impact on coral reefs and other ecosystems vulnerable to climate change (established but incomplete) {3.2}. Anthropogenic drivers of biodiversity loss, including habitat loss as a result of land-use and sea-use change (addressed by Aichi Target 5), unsustainable agriculture, aquaculture and forestry (Aichi Target 7), unsustainable fishing (Aichi Target 6), pollution (Aichi Target 8), and invasive alien species (Aichi Target 9) are increasing globally, despite national efforts to meet the Aichi Targets (established but incomplete) {3.2}. Abbreviations: ILK: indigenous and local knowledge; IPLCs: indigenous peoples and local communities; NBSAPs: national biodiversity strategies and action plans. a Strategic Plan for Biodiversity 2011–2020.

C1 -- bm_label

There has been good progress towards the components of 4 of the 20 Aichi Biodiversity Targets under the Strategic Plan for Biodiversity 2011–2020. Moderate progress has been achieved towards some components of 7 more targets, but for 6 others, poor progress has been made towards all components. There is insufficient information to assess progress towards some or all components of the remaining 3 targets (established but incomplete) {3.2}. Overall, the state of nature continues to decline (12 of 16 indicators show significantly worsening trends) (well established) {3.2} (Figure SPM.6).

C2 -- bm_description

For example, conservation investment during the period between 1996 and 2008 reduced the extinction risk for mammals and birds in 109 countries by a median value of 29 per cent per country, while the rate of decrease in extinction risk for birds, mammals and amphibians would have been at least 20 per cent higher without conservation action in recent decades. Similarly, it is likely that at least 6 species of ungulate (e.g., the Arabian Oryx and Przewalski’s Horse) would now be extinct or surviving only in captivity without conservation measures. At least 107 highly threatened birds, mammals and reptiles (e.g., the Island Fox and the Seychelles Magpie-Robin) are estimated to have benefited from invasive mammal eradication on islands {3.2.2}. Although still few and spatially localized, such cases show that with prompt and appropriate action, it is possible to reduce human-induced extinction rates (established but incomplete) {2.2.5.2.4, 4}. There are, however, few other counterfactual studies assessing how trends in the state of nature or pressures upon nature would have been different in the absence of conservation efforts (well established) {3.2}.

1. For example, conservation investment during the period between 1996 and 2008 reduced the extinction risk for mammals and birds in 109 countries by a median value of 29 per cent per country, while the rate of decrease in extinction risk for birds, mammals and amphibians would have been at least 20 per cent higher without conservation action in recent decades. Similarly, it is likely that at least 6 species of ungulate (e.g., the Arabian Oryx and Przewalski’s Horse) would now be extinct or surviving only in captivity without conservation measures. At least 107 highly threatened birds, mammals and reptiles (e.g., the Island Fox and the Seychelles Magpie-Robin) are estimated to have benefited from invasive mammal eradication on islands
   3.2.2
   n/a
2. Although still few and spatially localized, such cases show that with prompt and appropriate action, it is possible to reduce human-induced extinction rates.
   2.2.5.2.4, 4
   established but incomplete
3. There are, however, few other counterfactual studies assessing how trends in the state of nature or pressures upon nature would have been different in the absence of conservation efforts
   3.2
   well established

C2 -- bm_label

Conservation actions, including protected areas, efforts to manage unsustainable use and address the illegal capture and trade of species, and the translocation and eradication of invasive species, have been successful in preventing the extinction of some species (established but incomplete).

1. Conservation actions, including protected areas, efforts to manage unsustainable use and address the illegal capture and trade of species, and the translocation and eradication of invasive species, have been successful in preventing the extinction of some species
   n/a
   established but incomplete

C4 -- bm_description

For example, climate change is projected to greatly increase the number of species under threat, with fewer species expanding their ranges or experiencing more suitable climatic conditions than the number of species experiencing range contraction or less suitable conditions (established but incomplete) {4.2, 3.2}. The impact of climate change on the effectiveness of protected areas calls for a re-evaluation of conservation objectives; meanwhile, there are currently few protected areas whose objectives and management take climate change into account (established but incomplete). The Sustainable Development Goals for poverty, health, water and food security, and sustainability targets are closely linked through the impacts of multiple direct drivers, including climate change, on biodiversity and ecosystem functions and services, nature and nature’s contributions to people and good quality of life. In a post-2020 global biodiversity framework, placing greater emphasis on the interactions between the targets of the Sustainable Development Goals {4.6, 3.7} may provide a way forward for achieving multiple targets, as synergies (and trade-offs) can be considered. Future targets are expected to be more effective if they take into account the impacts of climate change, including on biodiversity, and action to mitigate and adapt to climate change {4.6, 3.7}.

1. For example, climate change is projected to greatly increase the number of species under threat, with fewer species expanding their ranges or experiencing more suitable climatic conditions than the number of species experiencing range contraction or less suitable conditions.
   4.2, 3.2
   established but incomplete
2. The impact of climate change on the effectiveness of protected areas calls for a re-evaluation of conservation objectives; meanwhile, there are currently few protected areas whose objectives and management take climate change into account
   n/a
   established but incomplete
3. The Sustainable Development Goals for poverty, health, water and food security, and sustainability targets are closely linked through the impacts of multiple direct drivers, including climate change, on biodiversity and ecosystem functions and services, nature and nature’s contributions to people and good quality of life. In a post-2020 global biodiversity framework, placing greater emphasis on the interactions between the targets of the Sustainable Development Goals
   4.6, 3.7
   n/a
4. Placing greater emphasis on the interactions between the targets of the Sustainable Development Goals may provide a way forward for achieving multiple targets, as synergies (and trade-offs) can be considered.
   4.6, 3.7
   n/a

C4 -- bm_label

To achieve the Sustainable Development Goals and the 2050 Vision for Biodiversity, future targets are likely to be more effective if they take into account the impacts of climate change (well established) {3.2, 3.3}.

1. To achieve the Sustainable Development Goals and the 2050 Vision for Biodiversity, future targets are likely to be more effective if they take into account the impacts of climate change
   3.2, 3.3
   well established

C5 -- bm_description

All climate model trajectories show that limiting human-induced climate change to well below 2°C requires immediate, rapid reductions in greenhouse gas emissions or a reliance on substantial carbon dioxide removal from the atmosphere. However, the land areas required for bioenergy crops (with or without carbon capture and storage), afforestation and reforestation to achieve the targeted carbon uptake rates are projected to be very large {4.2.4.3., 4.5.3}. The biodiversity and environmental impact of large-scale afforestation and reforestation depends to a large degree on where these occur (prior vegetation cover, state of degradation), and the tree species planted (established but incomplete). Likewise, large bioenergy crop or afforested areas are expected to compete with areas set aside for conservation, including restoration, or agriculture (established but incomplete). Consequently, large-scale land-based mitigation measures may jeopardize the achievement of other Sustainable Development Goals that depend on land resources (well established) {4.5.3}. In contrast, the benefits of avoiding and reducing deforestation and promoting restoration can be significant for biodiversity (well established) and are expected to have co-benefits for local communities (established but incomplete) {4.2.4.3}.

1. All climate model trajectories show that limiting human-induced climate change to well below 2°C requires immediate, rapid reductions in greenhouse gas emissions or a reliance on substantial carbon dioxide removal from the atmosphere. However, the land areas required for bioenergy crops (with or without carbon capture and storage), afforestation and reforestation to achieve the targeted carbon uptake rates are projected to be very large.
   4.2.4.3., 4.5.3
   n/a
2. The biodiversity and environmental impact of large-scale afforestation and reforestation depends to a large degree on where these occur (prior vegetation cover, state of degradation), and the tree species planted
   n/a
   established but incomplete
3. Likewise, large bioenergy crop or afforested areas are expected to compete with areas set aside for conservation, including restoration, or agriculture
   n/a
   established but incomplete
4. Consequently, large-scale land-based mitigation measures may jeopardize the achievement of other Sustainable Development Goals that depend on land resources.
   4.5.3
   well established
5. In contrast, the benefits of avoiding and reducing deforestation and promoting restoration can be significant for biodiversity
   n/a
   well established
6. The benefits of avoiding and reducing deforestation and promoting restoration are expected to have co-benefits for local communities.
   4.2.4.3
   established but incomplete

C5 -- bm_label

The adverse impacts of climate change on biodiversity are projected to increase with increasing warming, so limiting global warming to well below 2°C would have multiple co-benefits for nature and nature’s contributions to people and quality of life; however, it is projected that some large-scale land-based mitigation measures to achieve that objective will have significant impacts on biodiversity (established but incomplete) {4.2, 4.3, 4.4, 4.5}.

1. The adverse impacts of climate change on biodiversity are projected to increase with increasing warming, so limiting global warming to well below 2°C would have multiple co-benefits for nature and nature’s contributions to people and quality of life; however, it is projected that some large-scale land-based mitigation measures to achieve that objective will have significant impacts on biodiversity
   4.2, 4.3, 4.4, 4.5
   established but incomplete

C6 -- bm_description

These changes arise from continued human population growth, increasing purchasing power, and increasing per capita consumption. The projected effects of climate change and land use change on terrestrial and freshwater biodiversity are mostly negative, increase with the degree of global warming and land use change, and have an impact on marine biodiversity through increased eutrophication and deoxygenation of coastal waters (well established) {4.2.2.3.2, 4.2.3, 4.2.4}. For instance, a synthesis of many studies estimates that the fraction of species at risk of extinction due to climate change is 5 per cent at 2°C warming, rising to 16 per cent at 4.3°C warming {4.2.1.1}. Climate change and business-as-usual fishing scenarios are expected to worsen the status of marine biodiversity (well established) {4.2.2.2, 4.2.2.3.1}. Climate change alone is projected to decrease ocean net primary production by between 3 and 10 per cent, and fish biomass by between 3 and 25 per cent (in low and high warming scenarios, respectively) by the end of the century (established but incomplete) {4.2.2.2.1}. Whether or not the current removal of nearly 30 per cent of anthropogenic carbon dioxide emissions by terrestrial ecosystems continues into the future varies greatly from one scenario to the next and depends heavily on how climate change, atmospheric carbon dioxide and land-use change interact. Important regulating contributions of nature, such as coastal and soil protection, crop pollination and carbon storage, are projected to decline (established but incomplete) {4.2.4, 4.3.2.1}. In contrast, substantial increases in food, feed, timber and bioenergy production are predicted in most scenarios (well established) {4.2.4, 4.3.2.2}. Scenarios that include substantial shifts towards sustainable management of resource exploitation and land use, market reform, globally equitable and moderate animal protein consumption, and reduction of food waste and losses result in low loss or even recovery of biodiversity (well established) {4.2.2.3.1, 4.2.4.2, 4.3.2.2, 4.5.3}.

1. These changes arise from continued human population growth, increasing purchasing power, and increasing per capita consumption. The projected effects of climate change and land use change on terrestrial and freshwater biodiversity are mostly negative, increase with the degree of global warming and land use change, and have an impact on marine biodiversity through increased eutrophication and deoxygenation of coastal waters.
   4.2.2.3.2, 4.2.3, 4.2.4
   well established
2. For instance, a synthesis of many studies estimates that the fraction of species at risk of extinction due to climate change is 5 per cent at 2°C warming, rising to 16 per cent at 4.3°C warming
   4.2.1.1
   n/a
3. Climate change and business-as-usual fishing scenarios are expected to worsen the status of marine biodiversity
   4.2.2.2, 4.2.2.3.1
   well established
4. Climate change alone is projected to decrease ocean net primary production by between 3 and 10 per cent, and fish biomass by between 3 and 25 per cent (in low and high warming scenarios, respectively) by the end of the century
   4.2.2.2.1
   established but incomplete
5. Whether or not the current removal of nearly 30 per cent of anthropogenic carbon dioxide emissions by terrestrial ecosystems continues into the future varies greatly from one scenario to the next and depends heavily on how climate change, atmospheric carbon dioxide and land-use change interact. Important regulating contributions of nature, such as coastal and soil protection, crop pollination and carbon storage, are projected to decline.
   4.2.4, 4.3.2.1
   established but incomplete
6. In contrast, substantial increases in food, feed, timber and bioenergy production are predicted in most scenarios
   4.2.4, 4.3.2.2
   well established
7. Scenarios that include substantial shifts towards sustainable management of resource exploitation and land use, market reform, globally equitable and moderate animal protein consumption, and reduction of food waste and losses result in low loss or even recovery of biodiversity
   4.2.2.3.1, 4.2.4.2, 4.3.2.2, 4.5.3
   well established

C6 -- bm_label

Biodiversity and nature’s regulating contributions to people are projected to decline further in most scenarios of global change over the coming decades, while the supply and demand for nature’s material contributions to people that have current market value (food, feed, timber and bioenergy) are projected to increase (well established) {4.2, 4.3} (for example, see Figure SPM.8).

1. Biodiversity and nature’s regulating contributions to people are projected to decline further in most scenarios of global change over the coming decades, while the supply and demand for nature’s material contributions to people that have current market value (food, feed, timber and bioenergy) are projected to increase.
   4.2, 4.3
   well established
2. (for example, see Figure SPM.8).
   n/a
   n/a

C7 -- bm_description

Sustainability scenarios that explore moderate and equitable consumption result in substantially lower negative impacts on biodiversity and ecosystems due to food, feed and timber production (well established) {4.1.3, 4.2.4.2, 4.3.2, 4.5.3}. The general patterns at the global level – namely, declines in biodiversity and regulating contributions versus increases in the production of food, bioenergy and materials – are evident in nearly all subregions {4.2.2, 4.2.3, 4.2.4, 4.3.3}. For terrestrial systems, most studies indicate that South America, Africa and parts of Asia will be much more significantly affected than other regions, especially in scenarios that are not based on sustainability objectives (Figure SPM.8). That is due in part to regional climate change differences and in part to the fact that scenarios generally foresee the largest land use conversions to crops or bioenergy in those regions {4.1.5, 947 4.2.4.2}. Regions such as North America and Europe are expected to have low conversion to crops and continued reforestation {4.1.5, 4.2.4.2}. The “Global sustainability” scenario combines proactive environmental policy and sustainable production and consumption with low greenhouse gas emissions (SSP1, RCP2.6; top rows in each panel); The “Regional competition” scenario combines strong trade and other barriers and a growing gap between rich and poor with high emissions (SSP3, RCP6.0; middle rows); and The “Economic optimism” scenario combines rapid economic growth and low environmental regulation with very high greenhouse emissions (SSP5, RCP8.5; bottom rows). Multiple models were used with each of the scenarios to generate the first rigorous global-scale model comparison estimating the impact on biodiversity (change in species richness across a wide range of terrestrial plant and animal species at regional scales; orange bars), material NCP (food, feed, timber and bioenergy: purple bars) and regulating NCP (nitrogen retention, soil protection, crop pollination, crop pest control and ecosystem carbon storage and sequestration: white bars). The bars represent the normalized means of multiple models and the whiskers indicate the standard errors. The global means of percentage changes in individual indicators can be found in Figure 4.2.14.

1. Sustainability scenarios that explore moderate and equitable consumption result in substantially lower negative impacts on biodiversity and ecosystems due to food, feed and timber production
   4.1.3, 4.2.4.2, 4.3.2, 4.5.3
   well established
2. The general patterns at the global level – namely, declines in biodiversity and regulating contributions versus increases in the production of food, bioenergy and materials – are evident in nearly all subregions
   4.2.2, 4.2.3, 4.2.4, 4.3.3
   n/a
3. For terrestrial systems, most studies indicate that South America, Africa and parts of Asia will be much more significantly affected than other regions, especially in scenarios that are not based on sustainability objectives (Figure SPM.8). That is due in part to regional climate change differences and in part to the fact that scenarios generally foresee the largest land use conversions to crops or bioenergy in those regions
   4.1.5, 947 4.2.4.2
   n/a
4. Regions such as North America and Europe are expected to have low conversion to crops and continued reforestation
   4.1.5, 4.2.4.2
   n/a
5. The "Global sustainability" scenario combines proactive environmental policy and sustainable production and consumption with low greenhouse gas emissions (SSP1, RCP2.6; top rows in each panel); The "Regional competition" scenario combines strong trade and other barriers and a growing gap between rich and poor with high emissions (SSP3, RCP6.0; middle rows); and The "Economic optimism" scenario combines rapid economic growth and low environmental regulation with very high greenhouse emissions (SSP5, RCP8.5; bottom rows). Multiple models were used with each of the scenarios to generate the first rigorous global-scale model comparison estimating the impact on biodiversity (change in species richness across a wide range of terrestrial plant and animal species at regional scales; orange bars), material NCP (food, feed, timber and bioenergy: purple bars) and regulating NCP (nitrogen retention, soil protection, crop pollination, crop pest control and ecosystem carbon storage and sequestration: white bars). The bars represent the normalized means of multiple models and the whiskers indicate the standard errors. The global means of percentage changes in individual indicators can be found in Figure 4.2.14.
   n/a
   n/a

C7 -- bm_label

The magnitude of the impacts on biodiversity and ecosystem functions and services and the differences between regions are smaller in scenarios that focus on global or regional sustainability (well established) (Figure SPM.8).

1. The magnitude of the impacts on biodiversity and ecosystem functions and services and the differences between regions are smaller in scenarios that focus on global or regional sustainability
   n/a
   well established

C8 -- bm_description

Substantial climate change-driven shifts of terrestrial biome boundaries, in particular in boreal, subpolar and polar regions and in (semi-)arid environments, are projected for the coming decades; a warmer, drier climate will reduce productivity in many places (well established) {4.2.4.1}. In contrast, rising atmospheric carbon dioxide concentrations can be beneficial for net primary productivity and can enhance woody vegetation cover, especially in semi-arid regions (established but incomplete) {4.2.4.1}. For marine systems, impacts are expected to be geographically variable, with many fish populations projected to move poleward due to ocean warming, meaning that local species extinctions are expected in the tropics (well established) {4.2.2.2.1}. However, that does not necessarily imply an increase in biodiversity in the polar seas, because of the rapid rate of sea ice retreat and the enhanced ocean acidification of cold waters (established but incomplete) {4.2.2.2.4}. Along coastlines, the upsurge in extreme climatic events, sea level rise and coastal development are expected to cause increased fragmentation and loss of habitats. Coral reefs are projected to undergo more frequent extreme warming events, with less recovery time in between, declining by a further 70–90 per cent at global warming of 1.5°C, and by more than 99 per cent at warming of 2°C, causing massive bleaching episodes with high coral mortality rates (well established) {4.2.2.2.2}. D. Nature can be conserved, restored and used sustainably while simultaneously meeting other global societal goals through urgent and concerted efforts fostering transformative change

1. Substantial climate change-driven shifts of terrestrial biome boundaries, in particular in boreal, subpolar and polar regions and in (semi-)arid environments, are projected for the coming decades; a warmer, drier climate will reduce productivity in many places.
   4.2.4.1
   well established
2. In contrast, rising atmospheric carbon dioxide concentrations can be beneficial for net primary productivity and can enhance woody vegetation cover, especially in semi-arid regions
   4.2.4.1
   established but incomplete
3. For marine systems, impacts are expected to be geographically variable, with many fish populations projected to move poleward due to ocean warming, meaning that local species extinctions are expected in the tropics.
   4.2.2.2.1
   well established
4. However, that does not necessarily imply an increase in biodiversity in the polar seas, because of the rapid rate of sea ice retreat and the enhanced ocean acidification of cold waters
   4.2.2.2.4
   established but incomplete
5. Along coastlines, the upsurge in extreme climatic events, sea level rise and coastal development are expected to cause increased fragmentation and loss of habitats. Coral reefs are projected to undergo more frequent extreme warming events, with less recovery time in between, declining by a further 70–90 per cent at global warming of 1.5°C, and by more than 99 per cent at warming of 2°C, causing massive bleaching episodes with high coral mortality rates
   4.2.2.2.2
   well established
6. Nature can be conserved, restored and used sustainably while simultaneously meeting other global societal goals through urgent and concerted efforts fostering transformative change.
   n/a
   n/a

C8 -- bm_label

Climate change impacts also play a major role in regionally-differentiated projections of biodiversity and ecosystem functioning in both marine and terrestrial systems. Novel communities, where species will co-occur in historically unknown combinations, are expected to emerge (established but incomplete) {4.2.1.2., 4.2.4.1}

1. Climate change impacts also play a major role in regionally-differentiated projections of biodiversity and ecosystem functioning in both marine and terrestrial systems. Novel communities, where species will co-occur in historically unknown combinations, are expected to emerge
   4.2.1.2., 4.2.4.1
   established but incomplete

Nature can be conserved, restored and used sustainably while simultaneously meeting other global societal goals through urgent and concerted efforts fostering transformative change (D.)

D1 -- bm_description

Increasing awareness of interconnectedness in the context of the environmental crisis and new norms regarding interactions between humans and nature would support that change (well established) {5.3, 5.4.3}. In the short term (before 2030), all decision makers could contribute to sustainability transformations, including through enhanced and improved implementation and enforcement of effective existing policy instruments and regulations, and the reform and removal of harmful existing policies and subsidies (well established). Additional measures are necessary to enable transformative change over the long term (up to 2050) to address the indirect drivers that are the root causes of the deterioration of nature (well established), including changes in social, economic and technological structures within and across nations {6.2, 6.3, 6.4, SPM Table.1}.

1. Increasing awareness of interconnectedness in the context of the environmental crisis and new norms regarding interactions between humans and nature would support that change
   5.3, 5.4.3
   well established
2. In the short term (before 2030), all decision makers could contribute to sustainability transformations, including through enhanced and improved implementation and enforcement of effective existing policy instruments and regulations, and the reform and removal of harmful existing policies and subsidies
   n/a
   well established
3. Additional measures are necessary to enable transformative change over the long term (up to 2050) to address the indirect drivers that are the root causes of the deterioration of nature
   n/a
   well established
4. Additional measures are necessary to enable transformative change over the long term (up to 2050) to address the indirect drivers that are the root causes of the deterioration of nature, including changes in social, economic and technological structures within and across nations.
   6.2, 6.3, 6.4, SPM Table.1
   n/a

D1 -- bm_label

The Sustainable Development Goals and the 2050 Vision for Biodiversity cannot be achieved without transformative change, the conditions for which can be put in place now (well established) {2, 3, 5, 6.2} (Figure SPM.9).

1. The Sustainable Development Goals and the 2050 Vision for Biodiversity cannot be achieved without transformative change, the conditions for which can be put in place now
   2, 3, 5, 6.2
   well established

D10 -- bm_description

Promising interventions include practising integrated water resource management and landscape planning across scales; protecting wetland biodiversity areas; guiding and limiting the expansion of unsustainable agriculture and mining; slowing and reversing the de-vegetation of catchments; and mainstreaming practices that reduce erosion, sedimentation, and pollution run-off and minimize the negative impact of dams (well established) {6.3.4.6}.
Sector-specific interventions include improved water-use efficiency techniques (including in agriculture, mining and energy), decentralized rainwater collection (for example, household-based), integrated management of surface and groundwater (e.g., “conjunctive use”), locally-developed water conservation techniques, and water pricing and incentive programmes (such as water accounts and payment for ecosystem services programmes) {6.3.4.2, 6.3.4.4}. With regard to watershed payment for ecosystem services programmes, their effectiveness and efficiency can be enhanced by acknowledging multiple values in their design, implementation and evaluation and setting up impact evaluation systems (established but incomplete) {6.3.4.4}. Investment in infrastructure, including in green infrastructure, is important, especially in developing countries, but it can be undertaken in a way that takes into account ecological functions and the careful blending of built and natural infrastructure {5.3.2.4, 6.3.4.5}.

1. Promising interventions include practising integrated water resource management and landscape planning across scales; protecting wetland biodiversity areas; guiding and limiting the expansion of unsustainable agriculture and mining; slowing and reversing the de-vegetation of catchments; and mainstreaming practices that reduce erosion, sedimentation, and pollution run-off and minimize the negative impact of dams.
   6.3.4.6
   well established
2. Sector-specific interventions include improved water-use efficiency techniques (including in agriculture, mining and energy), decentralized rainwater collection (for example, household-based), integrated management of surface and groundwater (e.g., "conjunctive use"), locally-developed water conservation techniques, and water pricing and incentive programmes (such as water accounts and payment for ecosystem services programmes)
   6.3.4.2, 6.3.4.4
   n/a
3. With regard to watershed payment for ecosystem services programmes, their effectiveness and efficiency can be enhanced by acknowledging multiple values in their design, implementation and evaluation and setting up impact evaluation systems
   6.3.4.4
   established but incomplete
4. Investment in infrastructure, including in green infrastructure, is important, especially in developing countries, but it can be undertaken in a way that takes into account ecological functions and the careful blending of built and natural infrastructure
   5.3.2.4, 6.3.4.5
   n/a

D10 -- bm_label

Sustaining freshwater in the context of climate change, rising demand for water extraction and increased levels of pollution involves both cross-sectoral and sector-specific interventions that improve water-use efficiency, increase storage, reduce sources of pollution, improve water quality, minimize disruption and foster the restoration of natural habitats and flow regimes (well established) {6.3.4}.

1. Sustaining freshwater in the context of climate change, rising demand for water extraction and increased levels of pollution involves both cross-sectoral and sector-specific interventions that improve water-use efficiency, increase storage, reduce sources of pollution, improve water quality, minimize disruption and foster the restoration of natural habitats and flow regimes
   6.3.4
   well established

D11 -- bm_description

Urban planning approaches to promote sustainability include encouraging compact communities, designing nature-sensitive road networks and creating low-impact infrastructure and transportation systems (from an emissions and land-use perspective), including active, public and shared transport {5.3.2.6, 6.3.5}. However, given that most urban growth between now and 2030 will take place in the Global South, major sustainability challenges include creatively and inclusively addressing the lack of basic infrastructure (water, sanitation and mobility), the absence of spatial planning, and the limited governance capacity and financing mechanisms. Those challenges also offer opportunities for locally-developed innovation and experimentation, which will create new economic opportunities. A combination of bottom-up and city-level efforts through public, private, community and Government partnerships, can be effective in promoting low-cost and locally-adapted solutions to maintaining and restoring biodiversity and ecosystem functions and services. Nature-based options include combining grey and green infrastructure (such as wetland and watershed restoration and green roofs), enhancing green spaces through restoration and expansion, promoting urban gardens, maintaining and designing for ecological connectivity, and promoting accessibility for all (with benefits for human health). Additional solutions include disseminating new, low-cost technologies for decentralized wastewater treatment and energy production and creating incentives to reduce over-consumption {6.3.5}. Integrating cross-sectoral planning at the local, landscape and regional levels is important, as is involving diverse stakeholders (well established). Particularly important at the regional scale are policies and programmes that promote sustainability-minded collective action {5.4.1.3}, protect watersheds beyond city jurisdictions and ensure the connectivity of ecosystems and habitats (e.g., through green belts). At the regional scale, cross-sectoral approaches to mitigating the impact of infrastructure and energy projects entail support for comprehensive environmental impact assessments and strategic environmental assessments of local and regional cumulative impacts {6.3.6.4, 6.3.6.6}.

1. Urban planning approaches to promote sustainability include encouraging compact communities, designing nature-sensitive road networks and creating low-impact infrastructure and transportation systems (from an emissions and land-use perspective), including active, public and shared transport.
   5.3.2.6, 6.3.5
   n/a
2. However, given that most urban growth between now and 2030 will take place in the Global South, major sustainability challenges include creatively and inclusively addressing the lack of basic infrastructure (water, sanitation and mobility), the absence of spatial planning, and the limited governance capacity and financing mechanisms. Those challenges also offer opportunities for locally-developed innovation and experimentation, which will create new economic opportunities. A combination of bottom-up and city-level efforts through public, private, community and Government partnerships, can be effective in promoting low-cost and locally-adapted solutions to maintaining and restoring biodiversity and ecosystem functions and services. Nature-based options include combining grey and green infrastructure (such as wetland and watershed restoration and green roofs), enhancing green spaces through restoration and expansion, promoting urban gardens, maintaining and designing for ecological connectivity, and promoting accessibility for all (with benefits for human health). Additional solutions include disseminating new, low-cost technologies for decentralized wastewater treatment and energy production and creating incentives to reduce over-consumption
   6.3.5
   n/a
3. Integrating cross-sectoral planning at the local, landscape and regional levels is important, as is involving diverse stakeholders
   n/a
   well established
4. Particularly important at the regional scale are policies and programmes that promote sustainability-minded collective action
   5.4.1.3
   n/a
5. Policies and programmes that promote sustainability-minded collective action protect watersheds beyond city jurisdictions and ensure the connectivity of ecosystems and habitats (e.g., through green belts). At the regional scale, cross-sectoral approaches to mitigating the impact of infrastructure and energy projects entail support for comprehensive environmental impact assessments and strategic environmental assessments of local and regional cumulative impacts.
   6.3.6.4, 6.3.6.6
   n/a

D11 -- bm_label

Meeting the Sustainable Development Goals in cities and making cities resilient to climate change entails solutions that are sensitive to social, economic and ecological contexts. Integrated city-specific and landscape-level planning, nature-based solutions and built infrastructure, and responsible production and consumption can all contribute to sustainable and equitable cities and make a significant contribution to the overall climate change adaptation and mitigation effort.

1. Meeting the Sustainable Development Goals in cities and making cities resilient to climate change entails solutions that are sensitive to social, economic and ecological contexts. Integrated city-specific and landscape-level planning, nature-based solutions and built infrastructure, and responsible production and consumption can all contribute to sustainable and equitable cities and make a significant contribution to the overall climate change adaptation and mitigation effort.
   n/a
   n/a

D12 -- bm_description

Governments could reform subsidies and taxes to support nature and its contributions to people, removing perverse incentives and instead promoting diverse instruments such as payments linked to social and environmental metrics, as appropriate (established but incomplete) {6.4.1}. At the international level, options for reacting to the challenges generated by the displacement of the impacts of unsustainable consumption and production on nature include both rethinking established instruments and developing new instruments to account for long-distance impacts. Trade agreements and derivatives markets could be reformed to promote equity and prevent the deterioration of nature, although there are uncertainties associated with implementation (established but incomplete) {6.4.4}. Alternative models and measures of economic welfare (such as inclusive wealth accounting, natural capital accounting and degrowth models) are increasingly considered as possible approaches to balancing economic growth and the conservation of nature and its contributions and to recognizing trade-offs, the pluralism of values, and long-term goals (established but incomplete) {6.4.5}. Structural changes to economies are also key to shifting action over long timescales. Such changes include technological and social innovation regimes and investment frameworks that internalize environmental impacts, such as the externalities of economic activities, including by addressing environmental impacts in socially just and appropriate ways (well established) {5.4.1.7}. Although such market-based policy instruments as payments for ecosystem services, voluntary certification and biodiversity offsetting have increased in use, their effectiveness is mixed, and they are often contested; thus, they should be carefully designed and applied to avoid perverse effects in context (established but incomplete) {5.4.2.1, 6.3.2.2, 6.3.2.5, 6.3.6.3}. The widespread internalization of environmental impacts, including externalities associated with long-distance trade, is considered both an outcome and a component of national and global sustainable economies (well established) {5.4.1.6, 6.4}.

1. Governments could reform subsidies and taxes to support nature and its contributions to people, removing perverse incentives and instead promoting diverse instruments such as payments linked to social and environmental metrics, as appropriate
   6.4.1
   established but incomplete
2. At the international level, options for reacting to the challenges generated by the displacement of the impacts of unsustainable consumption and production on nature include both rethinking established instruments and developing new instruments to account for long-distance impacts. Trade agreements and derivatives markets could be reformed to promote equity and prevent the deterioration of nature, although there are uncertainties associated with implementation
   6.4.4
   established but incomplete
3. Alternative models and measures of economic welfare (such as inclusive wealth accounting, natural capital accounting and degrowth models) are increasingly considered as possible approaches to balancing economic growth and the conservation of nature and its contributions and to recognizing trade-offs, the pluralism of values, and long-term goals
   6.4.5
   established but incomplete
4. Structural changes to economies are also key to shifting action over long timescales. Such changes include technological and social innovation regimes and investment frameworks that internalize environmental impacts, such as the externalities of economic activities, including by addressing environmental impacts in socially just and appropriate ways
   5.4.1.7
   well established
5. Although such market-based policy instruments as payments for ecosystem services, voluntary certification and biodiversity offsetting have increased in use, their effectiveness is mixed, and they are often contested; thus, they should be carefully designed and applied to avoid perverse effects in context
   5.4.2.1, 6.3.2.2, 6.3.2.5, 6.3.6.3
   established but incomplete
6. The widespread internalization of environmental impacts, including externalities associated with long-distance trade, is considered both an outcome and a component of national and global sustainable economies
   5.4.1.6, 6.4
   well established

D12 -- bm_label

Decision makers have a range of options and tools for improving the sustainability of economic and financial systems (well established) {6.4}. Achieving a sustainable economy involves making fundamental reforms to economic and financial systems and tackling poverty and inequality as vital parts of sustainability (well established) {6.4}.

1. Decision makers have a range of options and tools for improving the sustainability of economic and financial systems.
   6.4
   well established
2. Achieving a sustainable economy involves making fundamental reforms to economic and financial systems and tackling poverty and inequality as vital parts of sustainability
   6.4
   well established

D2 -- bm_description

Cross-sectoral approaches, including landscape approaches, integrated watershed and coastal zone management, marine spatial planning, bioregional scale planning for energy, and new urban planning paradigms offer opportunities to reconcile multiple interests, values and forms of resource use, provided that these cross-sectoral approaches recognize trade-offs and uneven power relations between stakeholders (established but incomplete) {5.4.2, 5.4.3, 6.3, 6.4}.

1. Cross-sectoral approaches, including landscape approaches, integrated watershed and coastal zone management, marine spatial planning, bioregional scale planning for energy, and new urban planning paradigms offer opportunities to reconcile multiple interests, values and forms of resource use, provided that these cross-sectoral approaches recognize trade-offs and uneven power relations between stakeholders
   5.4.2, 5.4.3, 6.3, 6.4
   established but incomplete

D2 -- bm_label

Sustainability transformations call for cross-sectoral thinking and approaches (Figure SPM.9). Sectoral policies and measures can be effective in particular contexts, but often fail to account for indirect, distant and cumulative impacts, which can have adverse effects, including the exacerbation of inequalities (well established).

1. Sustainability transformations call for cross-sectoral thinking and approaches (Figure SPM.9). Sectoral policies and measures can be effective in particular contexts, but often fail to account for indirect, distant and cumulative impacts, which can have adverse effects, including the exacerbation of inequalities
   n/a
   well established

D3 -- bm_description

They help to address governance challenges that are common to many sectors and policy domains and create the conditions for implementing transformative change. Integrative approaches, such as mainstreaming across government sectors, are focused on the relationships between sectors and policies, and help to ensure policy coherence and effectiveness (well established). Inclusive approaches help to reflect a plurality of values and ensure equity (established but incomplete), including through equitable sharing of benefits arising from their use and rights-based approaches (established but incomplete). Informed governance entails novel strategies for knowledge production and co-production that are inclusive of diverse values and knowledge systems (established but incomplete). Adaptive approaches, including learning from experience, monitoring and feedback loops, contribute to preparing for and managing the inevitable uncertainties and complexities associated with social and environmental changes (established but incomplete) {6.2, 5.4.2}.

1. They help to address governance challenges that are common to many sectors and policy domains and create the conditions for implementing transformative change. Integrative approaches, such as mainstreaming across government sectors, are focused on the relationships between sectors and policies, and help to ensure policy coherence and effectiveness.
   n/a
   well established
2. Inclusive approaches help to reflect a plurality of values and ensure equity.
   n/a
   established but incomplete
3. Inclusive approaches help to reflect a plurality of values and ensure equity, including through equitable sharing of benefits arising from their use and rights-based approaches.
   n/a
   established but incomplete
4. Informed governance entails novel strategies for knowledge production and co-production that are inclusive of diverse values and knowledge systems
   n/a
   established but incomplete
5. Adaptive approaches, including learning from experience, monitoring and feedback loops, contribute to preparing for and managing the inevitable uncertainties and complexities associated with social and environmental changes
   6.2, 5.4.2
   established but incomplete

D3 -- bm_label

Transformative change is facilitated by innovative governance approaches that incorporate existing approaches, such as integrative, inclusive, informed and adaptive governance. While such approaches have been extensively practised and studied separately, it is increasingly recognized that together, they can contribute to transformative change (established but incomplete) {6.2}.

1. Transformative change is facilitated by innovative governance approaches that incorporate existing approaches, such as integrative, inclusive, informed and adaptive governance. While such approaches have been extensively practised and studied separately, it is increasingly recognized that together, they can contribute to transformative change
   6.2
   established but incomplete

D4 -- bm_description

The notion of levers and leverage points recognizes that complex global systems cannot be managed simply, but that in certain cases, specific interventions can be mutually reinforcing and can generate larger-scale changes towards achieving shared goals (well established) (Table SPM.1). For example, changes in laws and policies can enable and underpin changes in resource management and consumption, and in turn, changes in individual and collective behaviour and habits can facilitate the implementation of policies and laws {5.4.3}.

D4 -- bm_label

A summary of the evidence related to the components of pathways to sustainability suggests that there are five overarching types of management interventions, or levers, and eight leverage points that are key for achieving transformative change (Figure SPM.9; D3 and D4 above) {5.4.1, 5.4.2}.

D5 -- bm_description

Those include introducing and improving standards, systems and relevant regulations aimed at internalizing the external costs of production, extraction and consumption (such as pricing wasteful or polluting practices, including through penalties); promoting resource efficiency and circular and other economic models; voluntary environmental and social certification of market chains; and incentives that promote sustainable practices and innovation. Importantly, they also involve a change in the definition of what a good quality of life entails – decoupling the idea of a good and meaningful life from ever-increasing material consumption. All those approaches are more effective when they are mutually reinforcing. Actions that help to voluntarily unleash existing social values of responsibility in the form of individual, collective and organizational actions towards sustainability can have a powerful and lasting effect in shifting behaviour and cultivating stewardship as a normal social practice (established but incomplete) {5.4.1.2, 5.4.1.3, 6.4.2, 6.4.3}.

1. Those include introducing and improving standards, systems and relevant regulations aimed at internalizing the external costs of production, extraction and consumption (such as pricing wasteful or polluting practices, including through penalties); promoting resource efficiency and circular and other economic models; voluntary environmental and social certification of market chains; and incentives that promote sustainable practices and innovation. Importantly, they also involve a change in the definition of what a good quality of life entails – decoupling the idea of a good and meaningful life from ever-increasing material consumption. All those approaches are more effective when they are mutually reinforcing. Actions that help to voluntarily unleash existing social values of responsibility in the form of individual, collective and organizational actions towards sustainability can have a powerful and lasting effect in shifting behaviour and cultivating stewardship as a normal social practice
   5.4.1.2, 5.4.1.3, 6.4.2, 6.4.3
   established but incomplete

D5 -- bm_label

Changes towards sustainable production and consumption and towards reducing and transforming residues and waste, particularly changes in consumption among the affluent, is recognized by some individuals and communities worldwide as central to sustainable development and reducing inequalities. While actual reductions have been limited, actions already being taken at different levels can be improved, coordinated and scaled up (well established).

1. Changes towards sustainable production and consumption and towards reducing and transforming residues and waste, particularly changes in consumption among the affluent, is recognized by some individuals and communities worldwide as central to sustainable development and reducing inequalities. While actual reductions have been limited, actions already being taken at different levels can be improved, coordinated and scaled up
   n/a
   well established

D6 -- bm_description

National Governments play a central role in supporting primary research, effective conservation and the sustainable use of multi-functional landscapes and seascapes. This entails planning ecologically representative networks of interconnected protected areas to cover key biodiversity areas and managing trade-offs between societal objectives that represent diverse worldviews and multiple values of nature (established but incomplete) {6.3.2.3, 6.3.3.3}. Safeguarding protected areas into the future also entails enhancing monitoring and enforcement systems, managing biodiversity-rich land and sea beyond protected areas, addressing property rights conflicts and protecting environmental legal frameworks against the pressure of powerful interest groups. In many areas, conservation depends on building capacity and enhancing stakeholder collaboration, involving non-profit groups as well as indigenous peoples and local communities to establish and manage marine protected areas and marine protected area networks, and proactively using instruments such as landscape-scale and seascape-scale participatory scenarios and spatial planning, including transboundary conservation planning (well established) {5.3.2.3, 6.3.2.3, 6.3.3.3}. Implementation beyond protected areas includes combating wildlife and timber trafficking through effective enforcement and ensuring the legality and sustainability of trade in wildlife. Such actions include prioritizing the prosecution of wildlife trafficking in criminal justice systems, using community-based social marketing to reduce demand and implementing strong measures to combat corruption at all levels (established but incomplete) {6.3.2.3}.

1. National Governments play a central role in supporting primary research, effective conservation and the sustainable use of multi-functional landscapes and seascapes. This entails planning ecologically representative networks of interconnected protected areas to cover key biodiversity areas and managing trade-offs between societal objectives that represent diverse worldviews and multiple values of nature.
   6.3.2.3, 6.3.3.3
   established but incomplete
2. Safeguarding protected areas into the future also entails enhancing monitoring and enforcement systems, managing biodiversity-rich land and sea beyond protected areas, addressing property rights conflicts and protecting environmental legal frameworks against the pressure of powerful interest groups. In many areas, conservation depends on building capacity and enhancing stakeholder collaboration, involving non-profit groups as well as indigenous peoples and local communities to establish and manage marine protected areas and marine protected area networks, and proactively using instruments such as landscape-scale and seascape-scale participatory scenarios and spatial planning, including transboundary conservation planning
   5.3.2.3, 6.3.2.3, 6.3.3.3
   well established
3. Implementation beyond protected areas includes combating wildlife and timber trafficking through effective enforcement and ensuring the legality and sustainability of trade in wildlife. Such actions include prioritizing the prosecution of wildlife trafficking in criminal justice systems, using community-based social marketing to reduce demand and implementing strong measures to combat corruption at all levels
   6.3.2.3
   established but incomplete

D6 -- bm_label

Expanding and effectively managing the current network of protected areas, including terrestrial, freshwater and marine areas, is important for safeguarding biodiversity (well established), particularly in the context of climate change. Conservation outcomes also depend on adaptive governance, strong societal engagement, effective and equitable benefit-sharing mechanisms, sustained funding, and monitoring and enforcement of rules (well established) {6.2, 5.4.2}.

1. Expanding and effectively managing the current network of protected areas, including terrestrial, freshwater and marine areas, is important for safeguarding biodiversity.
   n/a
   well established
2. Particularly in the context of climate change, conservation outcomes also depend on adaptive governance, strong societal engagement, effective and equitable benefit-sharing mechanisms, sustained funding, and monitoring and enforcement of rules.
   6.2, 5.4.2
   well established

D7 -- bm_description

Policy mixes that are harmonized across sectors, levels of governance and jurisdictions can account for ecological and social differences across and beyond the landscape, build on existing forms of knowledge and governance and address trade-offs between tangible and non-tangible benefits in a transparent and equitable manner (established but incomplete). Sustainable landscape management can be better achieved through multifunctional, multi-use, multi-stakeholder and community-based approaches (well established), using a combination of measures and practices, including: (a) well-managed and connected protected areas and other effective area-based conservation measures; (b) reduced impact logging, forest certification, payment for ecosystem services, among other instruments, and reduced emissions from deforestation and forest degradation; (c) support for ecological restoration; (d) effective monitoring, including public access and participation as appropriate; (e) addressing illegal activities; (f) the effective implementation of multilateral environmental agreements and other relevant international agreements by their parties; and (g) promoting sustainable, biodiversity-based food systems. (well established) {6.3.2.1, 6.3.2.3, 6.3.2, 6.3.2.4}.

1. Policy mixes that are harmonized across sectors, levels of governance and jurisdictions can account for ecological and social differences across and beyond the landscape, build on existing forms of knowledge and governance and address trade-offs between tangible and non-tangible benefits in a transparent and equitable manner.
   n/a
   established but incomplete
2. Sustainable landscape management can be better achieved through multifunctional, multi-use, multi-stakeholder and community-based approaches
   n/a
   well established
3. Sustainable landscape management can be better achieved using a combination of measures and practices, including: (a) well-managed and connected protected areas and other effective area-based conservation measures; (b) reduced impact logging, forest certification, payment for ecosystem services, among other instruments, and reduced emissions from deforestation and forest degradation; (c) support for ecological restoration; (d) effective monitoring, including public access and participation as appropriate; (e) addressing illegal activities; (f) the effective implementation of multilateral environmental agreements and other relevant international agreements by their parties; and (g) promoting sustainable, biodiversity-based food systems.
   6.3.2.1, 6.3.2.3, 6.3.2, 6.3.2.4
   well established

D7 -- bm_label

Integrated landscape governance entails a mix of policies and instruments that together ensure nature conservation, ecological restoration and sustainable use, sustainable production (including of food, materials and energy), and sustainable forest management and infrastructure planning, and that address the major drivers of biodiversity loss and nature deterioration (well established) {6.3.2, 6.3.6}.

1. Integrated landscape governance entails a mix of policies and instruments that together ensure nature conservation, ecological restoration and sustainable use, sustainable production (including of food, materials and energy), and sustainable forest management and infrastructure planning, and that address the major drivers of biodiversity loss and nature deterioration
   6.3.2, 6.3.6
   well established

D8 -- bm_description

Options for sustainable agricultural production are available and continue to be developed, with some having more impacts on biodiversity and ecosystem functions than others {6.3.2.1}. These options include integrated pest and nutrient management, organic agriculture, agroecological practices, soil and water conservation practices, conservation agriculture, agroforestry, silvopastoral systems, irrigation management, small or patch systems and practices to improve animal welfare. These practices could be enhanced through well-structured regulations, incentives and subsidies, the removal of distorting subsidies {2.3.5.2, 5.3.2.1, 5.4.2.1, 6.3.2}, and – at landscape scales – by integrated landscape planning and watershed management. Ensuring the adaptive capacity of food production entails the use of measures that conserve the diversity of genes, varieties, cultivars, breeds, landraces and species, which also contributes to diversified, healthy and culturally-relevant nutrition. Some incentives and regulations may contribute to positive changes at both the production and consumption ends of supply chains, such as the creation, improvement and implementation of voluntary standards, certification and supply-chain agreements (e.g., the Soy Moratorium) and the reduction of harmful subsidies. Regulatory mechanisms could also address the risks of co-option and lobbying, where commercial or sectoral interests may work to maintain high levels of demand, monopolies and continued use of pesticides and chemical inputs {5.3.2.1}. Non-regulatory alternatives are also important, and potentially include technical assistance – especially for small-holders – and appropriate economic incentive programs, for example, some payment for ecosystem services programmes and other non-monetary instruments {5.4.2.1}. Options that address and engage other actors in food systems (including the public sector, civil society, consumers and grassroots movements) include participatory on-farm research, the promotion of low-impact and healthy diets and the localization of food systems. Such options could help reduce food waste, overconsumption, and the demand for animal products that are produced unsustainably, which could have synergistic benefits for human health (established but incomplete) {5.3.2.1, 6.3.2.1}.

1. Options for sustainable agricultural production are available and continue to be developed, with some having more impacts on biodiversity and ecosystem functions than others
   6.3.2.1
   n/a
2. These options include integrated pest and nutrient management, organic agriculture, agroecological practices, soil and water conservation practices, conservation agriculture, agroforestry, silvopastoral systems, irrigation management, small or patch systems and practices to improve animal welfare. These practices could be enhanced through well-structured regulations, incentives and subsidies, the removal of distorting subsidies
   2.3.5.2, 5.3.2.1, 5.4.2.1, 6.3.2
   n/a
3. These practices could be enhanced through well-structured regulations, incentives and subsidies, the removal of distorting subsidies and – at landscape scales – by integrated landscape planning and watershed management.
   5.3.2.1
   n/a
4. Non-regulatory alternatives are also important, and potentially include technical assistance – especially for small-holders – and appropriate economic incentive programs, for example, some payment for ecosystem services programmes and other non-monetary instruments
   5.4.2.1
   n/a
5. Options that address and engage other actors in food systems (including the public sector, civil society, consumers and grassroots movements) include participatory on-farm research, the promotion of low-impact and healthy diets and the localization of food systems. Such options could help reduce food waste, overconsumption, and the demand for animal products that are produced unsustainably, which could have synergistic benefits for human health.
   5.3.2.1, 6.3.2.1
   established but incomplete

D8 -- bm_label

Feeding the world in a sustainable manner, especially in the context of climate change and population growth, entails food systems that ensure adaptive capacity, minimize environmental impacts, eliminate hunger, and contribute to human health and animal welfare (established but incomplete) {5.3.2.1, 6.3.2.1}. Pathways to sustainable food systems entail land-use planning and sustainable management of both the supply/producer and the demand/consumer sides of food systems (well established) {5.3.2.1, 6.3.2.1, 6.4}.

1. Feeding the world in a sustainable manner, especially in the context of climate change and population growth, entails food systems that ensure adaptive capacity, minimize environmental impacts, eliminate hunger, and contribute to human health and animal welfare
   5.3.2.1, 6.3.2.1
   established but incomplete
2. Pathways to sustainable food systems entail land-use planning and sustainable management of both the supply/producer and the demand/consumer sides of food systems
   5.3.2.1, 6.3.2.1, 6.4
   well established

D9 -- bm_description

Scenarios show that the pathways to sustainable fisheries entail conserving, restoring and sustainably using marine ecosystems, rebuilding overfished stocks (including through targeted limits on catches or fishing efforts and moratoria), reducing pollution (including plastics), managing destructive extractive activities, eliminating harmful subsidies and illegal, unreported and unregulated fishing, adapting fisheries management to climate change impacts and reducing the environmental impact of aquaculture (well established) {4, 5.3.2.5, 6.3.3.3.2}. Marine protected areas have demonstrated success in both biodiversity conservation and improved local quality of life when managed effectively and can be further expanded through larger or more interconnected protected areas or new protected areas in currently underrepresented regions and key biodiversity areas (established but incomplete) {5.3.2.5; 6.3.3.3.1}. Due to major pressures on coasts (including from development, land reclamation and water pollution), implementing marine conservation initiatives, such as integrated coastal planning, outside of protected areas is important for biodiversity conservation and sustainable use (well established) {6.3.3.3}. Other measures to expand multi-sectoral cooperation on coastal management include corporate social responsibility measures, standards for building and construction, and eco-labelling (well established) {6.3.3.3.2, 6.3.3.3.4}. Additional tools could include both non-market and market-based economic instruments for financing conservation, including for example payment for ecosystem services, biodiversity offset schemes, blue-carbon sequestration, cap-and-trade programmes, green bonds and trust funds and new legal instruments, such as the proposed international, legally binding instrument on the conservation and sustainable use of marine biological diversity in areas beyond national jurisdiction under the United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea (established but incomplete) {6.3.3.2, 6.3.3.1.3, 5.4.2.1, 5.4.1.7}.

1. Scenarios show that the pathways to sustainable fisheries entail conserving, restoring and sustainably using marine ecosystems, rebuilding overfished stocks (including through targeted limits on catches or fishing efforts and moratoria), reducing pollution (including plastics), managing destructive extractive activities, eliminating harmful subsidies and illegal, unreported and unregulated fishing, adapting fisheries management to climate change impacts and reducing the environmental impact of aquaculture.
   4, 5.3.2.5, 6.3.3.3.2
   well established
2. Marine protected areas have demonstrated success in both biodiversity conservation and improved local quality of life when managed effectively and can be further expanded through larger or more interconnected protected areas or new protected areas in currently underrepresented regions and key biodiversity areas
   5.3.2.5; 6.3.3.3.1
   established but incomplete
3. Due to major pressures on coasts (including from development, land reclamation and water pollution), implementing marine conservation initiatives, such as integrated coastal planning, outside of protected areas is important for biodiversity conservation and sustainable use
   6.3.3.3
   well established
4. Other measures to expand multi-sectoral cooperation on coastal management include corporate social responsibility measures, standards for building and construction, and eco-labelling
   6.3.3.3.2, 6.3.3.3.4
   well established
5. Additional tools could include both non-market and market-based economic instruments for financing conservation, including for example payment for ecosystem services, biodiversity offset schemes, blue-carbon sequestration, cap-and-trade programmes, green bonds and trust funds and new legal instruments, such as the proposed international, legally binding instrument on the conservation and sustainable use of marine biological diversity in areas beyond national jurisdiction under the United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea
   6.3.3.2, 6.3.3.1.3, 5.4.2.1, 5.4.1.7
   established but incomplete

D9 -- bm_label

Ensuring sustainable food production from the oceans while protecting biodiversity entails policy action to apply sustainable ecosystem approaches to fisheries management; spatial planning (including the implementation and expansion of marine protected areas); and more broadly, policy action to address drivers such as climate change and pollution (well established) {5.3.2.5, 6.3.3}.

1. Ensuring sustainable food production from the oceans while protecting biodiversity entails policy action to apply sustainable ecosystem approaches to fisheries management; spatial planning (including the implementation and expansion of marine protected areas); and more broadly, policy action to address drivers such as climate change and pollution
   5.3.2.5, 6.3.3
   well established